Spain’s Vox party looks set to see its share of seats in the Spanish Parliament almost halved at the upcoming general elections on July 23, according to the latest polls, but the party could still play a decisive post-election role.
GAD 3’s most recent forecast gives Vox 29 out of 350 seats in Parliament, 23 seats fewer than it had before Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dissolved parliament in May. But given the expected balance of forces in the Spanish Congress following the elections, Santiago Abascal’s Vox party has a real chance of entering a national coalition government.
The Partido Popular (PP) leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, seems confident he will secure enough seats to govern alone, yet polls give the centre-right party only 151 MPs: fewer than the 176 absolute majority required to govern by itself.
The addition of Abascal’s MPs would give Feijóo a majority to govern relatively comfortably. A combined 180 MPs would secure both parties’ shared agenda of abolishing so-called “Sanchismo” (Sánchez’s progressive policies).
Over the weekend of July 15, Feijóo said in an interview that “Vox is not the right partner at the moment”, adding that he does not “feel comfortable” with its ideology.
Feijóo’s statement came just a week after he pledged to facilitate Sánchez’s investiture, should the Socialists win the most votes. Sánchez rejected that proposal.
Feijóo has repeatedly stated his preparedness to reach an agreement with the Socialists: “If I only need 20 MPs, I will reach out to the Socialist Party,” he said over the weekend.
He might try to for a minority government with tacit support from Sánchez. Alternatively he could reach an agreement with Abascal and see Vox ministers join his cabinet.
Vox has been sniping at Feijóo. “Faced with this dangerous Left, Mr Feijóo seems more clueless every day,” said Abascal at a campaign rally over the July 15 weekend. Despite this, PP regional leaders seem to favour some kind of pact. The popular president of the Madrid region Isabel Díaz Ayuso travelled to Valencia on July 15 where she endorsed the newly installed PP-Vox regional government. Valencia is just one of four regions where the PP and Vox govern together.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Left is convinced Feijóo would have no reservations in joining forces with Abascal. Yolanda Díaz from the progressive party Sumar claimed a right-wing coalition is a “real possibility”.
She said Vox had “hijacked” the PP and that “Abascal will be [Feijóo’s] vice president”.
Among pollsters, the left-leaning National Centre for Sociological Research forecast is the only one that predicts a leftist majority. It puts a Socialist-Sumar coalition 4.5 points ahead of the right-wing parties.
Abascal, Sánchez and Díaz are set to face each other in a televised debate. Feijóo rejected the invitation.
