The changing face of Cyprus: Will the island state soon be the first European country with a non-European majority?

If demographic replacement is undisputedly taking place somewhere in the EU, that place is Cyprus. The once predominantly Greek island and former British colony in the Eastern Mediterranean entered the EU as a European country. Soon, it may no longer be one. (Photo by Alexis Mitas/Getty Images)

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If demographic replacement is undisputedly taking place somewhere in the EU, that place is Cyprus. The once predominantly Greek island and former British colony in the Eastern Mediterranean entered the EU as a European country. Soon, it may no longer be one.

In the last weeks, Cyprus has been receiving hundreds of illegal immigrants, mainly from Syria through Lebanon, on a daily basis. But this is only the tip of the iceberg. Illegal immigration has plagued Cyprus since 2016 and – together with the demographic changes in the north – is now threatening its very identity.

“We have exceeded our limit,” the Cypriot government spokesman said after an emergency National Security Council meeting a few days ago. Indeed, things are now out of control – and the government in Nicosia is as responsible as the Brussels establishment.

With an official population of less than 925,000 the Republic of Cyprus has the highest migrant to indigenous population ratio and the highest proportion of asylum applicants relative to its population in the EU. The total population of the island is estimated by the UN at more than 1.3 million.

Until the 1974 invasion, Greek Cypriots made up 78.9 per cent of the island’s inhabitants. If things do not change soon and drastically, in the next couple of decades European citizens will no longer be the majority on Cyprus – i.e. both in the internationally recognised south and the occupied north.

“We are practically being invaded by tubs,” said Republic of Cyprus Minister of Interior Konstantinos Ioannou. But this is only one aspect of the invasion taking place. Many thousands of immigrants also fly from Ankara or Istanbul to the north and pass to the south through the UN controlled buffer zone.

This has been going on for years and results are shocking. According to the Schools Board of Nicosia, at present nearly 50 per cent of the pupils in Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus, have a migrant background – meaning that none of their parents is of Cypriot or Greek descent.

It is difficult to tell exactly how many illegal immigrants reside in the Republic of Cyprus. Eurostat data suggest that in 2021 18.8 per cent of the population were immigrants. Tens of thousands have since arrived by land and sea, while the total number of asylum seekers now exceeds 50,000. 

As for the north, the “TRNC” Institute of Statistics claims that the population has risen from 286,257 to 382,836 during the last decade – mostly because of settlers from Turkey. Add “at least 50,000 Russians, 15,000 Iranians and 140,000 Turks”, according to Yeni Duzen, and the total population of the north could soon be nearing 600,000.

If the above numbers are true, and given the fact that the total of EU citizens of all nationalities in Cyprus – including Greek Cypriots who are not more than 750,000 – does not exceed 850,000, the island overall is very close to no longer being majority European. 

Despite its division, it was the whole island that joined the EU in 2005 – even if the acquis communautaire applies only to its free part. And it joined as a European country, not as a Greek state, extending potential European citizenship to Turkish Cypriots alike – many of whom feel that they are not Turks. 

Cyprus was supposed to expand the EU’s geopolitical foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean. Twenty years later, if Europe does not get its act together on this tiny ancient outpost of Western civilization, the island is in danger of becoming a de facto part of the Middle East.