Putin has not taken the bait: will Kursk offensive backfire on Ukraine?

Ukraine has surprised the world with an impressive offensive into the Kursk oblast. Its armed forces clearly caught the Russian army off guard and have so far achieved a victory nobody expected. But could this backfire for Ukraine in the near future?

Rather than another border skirmish, this time Ukraine planned and executed a full-scale invasion into Russian territory. It even took the Russians a good couple of days before they realised what was going on.

At the moment Ukraine has captured and controls about 500 km² of Russian land. On the tactical level, Ukraine’s assault has performed brilliantly. But what is the strategic objective of such a bold and daring move?

First of all, military analysts suggest, Ukraine aimed at relieving stress off the conflict’s southern front where Russians have been steadily advancing during the last months.

Ukrainian generals had most probably expected that the Russian high command would order troops fighting in the southern provinces of Donbass to move to Kursk so as to avoid loss of Russian soil. This did not happen.

Then, as the BBC has suggested, Zelensky may have wanted to lure Vladimir Putin into a disproportionate reaction, possibly involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Such a development would have further strengthened Western support for Ukraine, especially at a time where eyes are on the Middle East, and backing Kiev is no longer priority number one. This did not happen either.

At the same time Ukraine’s leadership must have surely thought that occupying enemy territory would be a useful bargaining chip when the two sides sit at the negotiating table.

With Donald Trump quite likely to win the upcoming US election, Kiev knows it may no longer enjoy unreserved support from Washington. It must therefore prepare for negotiations one way or another.

However, playing such a card means that Ukraine must make sure that it holds onto the territory it has conquered. This is not certain at all as Russian forces are reportedly preparing to strike back hard on Ukrainians in Kursk.

The fact of the matter is that Vladimir Putin appears not to have bitten the bait. On the contrary, he made a realistic – if not cynical – decision to accept temporary loss of Russian ground but not weaken his forces in the South.

Indeed, in the Donbas, i.e. in the regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, the Russian army is making constant progress. Ukraine is forced to evacuate tens of thousands of civilians from large cities like Pokrovsk, Niu York has fallen and Kostantynivka is under threat.

In the end, Kiev may be forced to do what it hoped that Moscow would fall for: move troops and hardware to where the enemy is pushing the hardest. And if Ukrainian armed forces retreat from Kursk to stop the Russians in Ukraine, the whole invasion campaign will have been a pointless and costly feat.

Yet another episode of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is unravelling before our eyes. This game of chess would be truly interesting to watch if people were not dying and our economies were not suffering as a result of it.