German Chancellor Scholz’s leadership of Socialists in peril

The growing unpopularity of Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD), trailing the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the polls, has intensified the debate over whether Chancellor Olaf Scholz is the best candidate to lead the SPD in February’s general election.

The question dominating the political and media scene is simple: Should Scholz cede the role to defence minister Boris Pistorius? According to the latest Forsa poll, 66 per cent of Germans see Pistorius as the SPD’s best candidate for the chancellorship, compared to 18 per cent who back Scholz.

Although Scholz has reaffirmed his intention to seek re-election, he has not yet been officially nominated as a candidate. If the SPD were to opt for another figure, he would have to agree not to run.

The SPD leadership, responsible for choosing the party’s candidate, held a conference call on November 19 to plan the campaign. Scholz did not participate, as he was returning from the G20 summit in Brazil.

The next executive meeting is scheduled for November 25, although it is possible the meeting may be brought forward to deal with the apparently growing internal debate.

On January 11, delegates are due to vote on the nominated candidate formally during the SPD congress. Less than a month will be left before the February 23  elections, where polls predict a humiliating result for the party, with just 15 per cent of the vote.

Friedrich Merz’s CDU appears to be the favourite to take the role, its last chancellor being Angela Merkel who left office in 2021.

Even in a “grand coalition” between the CDU and the SPD, it appears Scholz would not occupy a ministerial post in a possible Merz-led government.

Despite speculation, SPD leaders Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil have reiterated their support for Scholz. “He is our chancellor and our candidate,” Esken said on ARD public television on November 18. Klingbeil added: “There is no hesitation. Scholz is our clear choice.”

Although officially loyal, Pistorius does not entirely rule out the possibility of taking on a more leading role. “We have a candidate for chancellor, and he is the current chancellor,” he told ARD. He did, though, jokingly qualify that by adding: “In politics, you can never rule out anything … except becoming pope.”

Scholz’s dismissal of his finance minister Christian Lindner, leader of the Freedom Party (FDP), on November 7 marked the end of the government coalition.

The SPD now faces a difficult choice: Stand firm with Scholz or bet on Pistorius, who, politicians feel, has charisma and popularity that could be decisive in avoiding an electoral wipe-out.

Germany’s #AfD could be declared ‘anti-constitutional’ by the end of the year.

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