A report led by the Institute for Security Studies and the European University Institute has raised alarm over the potential chaos the European Union could face in 2025 – and ranks Russia as the EU’s greatest threat.
The paper published on January 28 is a result of a survey conducted in November 2024 involving various European experts’ views on conflict-related threats to EU interests in 2025.
At the report’s launch event, Benedetta Berti, director of Policy Planning at NATO, who also took part in the survey, stated: “We are not at war, but we are not at peace.”
The document was labelled as the first comprehensive, continent-wide assessment of global risk perceptions from European experts, modelled after the Preventive Priorities Survey used by the Council on Foreign Relations in the US.
The report categorised risks at three levels: Remote, medium, and high. It highlighted eight “high” threats to the EU in 2025, including:
- US isolationism, with a potential withdrawal from security guarantees to European allies
- Russian military actions in non-NATO neighbouring states
- A large-scale military confrontation between Iran and Israel
- A ceasefire favourable to Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
- Large-scale irregular migration from the Middle East and North Africa
- The installation of a government favourable to Russia in Georgia
- A disruptive hybrid attack on EU critical infrastructure
- Continued conflict between Israel and Hamas with no ceasefire
Of these, the last three were seen by the authors as the most likely to occur.
The report underscored that “Russia features heavily” in concerns for EU experts, with seven of the 30 overall risks identified being related to “Russia’s aggressive actions or destabilising potential for EU interests in 2025”.
In line with the paper, Kaja Kallas, Vice-President of the European Commission, has warned that the EU could be at risk of a direct Russian attack as early as 2028.
The European Union is at risk of a direct attack from Russia as soon as 2028 if it fails to shore up its own defence, the bloc’s foreign affairs tsar Kaja Kallas has claimed. https://t.co/nJGtVN45se
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) January 23, 2025
Berti emphasised that the prominent position of Russia on the list signalled the need for the EU to prepare for long-term “adversarial relations” with Moscow.
In line with this, the report suggested that a ceasefire in Ukraine, if negotiated on Russia’s terms, posed a major risk to the EU.
Enrique Mora, deputy secretary general of the European External Action Service, also warned that a poorly negotiated ceasefire would allow Russia to regroup and legitimise any future military actions.
Cybersecurity also ranked high on the list of threats.
