According to the latest poll on the Polish public’s attitude to the US, Poles have become ambivalent about Washington’s role in the world and on Polish-US relations.
The survey taken by the publicly-owned Centre for Public Opinion Research (CBOS) in April and published on April 30 found that 52 per cent of respondents considered Polish-US relations as “neither good nor bad”, 31 per cent as good and 10 per cent as negative.
When compared with a survey by the same pollster in 2023, that demonstrated a marked shift in Polish public opinion away from unequivocal support for the US.
In March 2023, 80 per cent of Poles viewed relations with the US positively, although that poll was taken in the immediate aftermath of a visit by the then-US President Joe Biden. It was at a time when both countries were united on opposing the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US was pledging support for strengthening NATO’s eastern flank.
Thus, over the period of two years, positive evaluations of relations with the US have fallen by nearly 50 per cent while ambivalent views have risen from 14 to 52 per cent and a totally negative assessment has gone up from just 1 per cent in 2023 to 10 per cent today.
CBOS also asked respondents who they felt gained more from the bilateral relationship between the two countries. In April of this year 42 per cent said both Poland and the US benefited equally, a drop of 19 per cent on the 2023 figures.
Some 33 per cent of this month’s survey felt that the relationship favoured the US, an increase of 15 per cent on 2023 figures, while only 5 per cent now believe that it was Poland that gained more.
Opinions on Washington’s role in global affairs have also shifted. The survey showed 29 per cent now viewed the US as having a generally negative impact worldwide, an increase of 23 points since 2023, while positive assessments have dropped sharply from 52 per cent to 20 per cent.
The survey’s findings on attitudes towards US President Donald Trump provided a clue as to the reasons for the changes in Poles attitudes towards his country.
Some 60 per cent of those surveyed said Trump’s presidency raised concerns, with only 14 per cent expressing enthusiasm and 19 per cent indifference.
The findings indicated Polish public opinion, which had for decades been Europe’s most pro-US country, has now moved in the same direction as most EU member states on the US since the turn of the century.
The period in which the polling was taken by CBOS this year (April 3-13), immediately after the controversy surrounding Trump’s introduction of global tariffs and his overtures towards Russia regarding ending the Ukraine war, apparently influenced these changes in attitude.
The US administration has sent out positive signals via defence secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio over US approval of Poland’s high defence spending. The two countries have also just signed an agreement deepening co-operation on the construction of Poland’s first nuclear power plant.
There have, though, been other signs that could be read as conflicting.
They included reports about the US mulling a reduction of troop numbers on the eastern flank of NATO, including reducing its military presence in Poland.
Another was the fact that, on his visit to the US just days after Trump came to power, Polish president Andrzej Duda only received a 10 minute audience with the US president and then at a CPAC conference rather than the White House.
Duda, who is aligned to the Polish opposition Conservatives (PiS) rather than the centre-left Polish Government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, failed to secure Trump’s presence at this month’s summit of Central European States hosted in Poland.
The shift in attitudes on relations with the US were an unwelcome development for the PiS ahead of Poland’s presidential election due on May 18. It had been the most vocal supporter of Trump during the run-up and aftermath of the US presidential election.
In its domestic election messaging, though, the PiS has maintained faith in the alliance with the US.
Duda recently appealed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to trust Trump as the “best chance of ending the war with Russia” and to be ready to make concessions, including territory, in order to achieve peace.
