The latest public opinion survey on Polish attitudes towards Ukraine has revealed that only 35 per cent of Poles support Ukraine’s accession to the EU and 37 per cent that country’s membership of NATO with 42 per cent opposing Kyiv’s membership of both.
The polling which was carried out in June by the IBRIS agency was commissioned by news portal Defence24 and the Stand With Ukraine foundation.
A narrow majority of respondents, 52 per cent agreed that “Poland should support Ukraine in international forums”, while 29 per cent said it should not.
However, only 35 per cent felt that Poland should “continue economic support for Ukraine” while 44 per cent were against it.
Meanwhile, 37 per cent wanted Poland to support Ukraine’s accession to NATO and 35 per cent to the EU with 42 per cent of respondents opposed.
These findings mark a significant change from 2022 when the same polling agency IBRIS reported that soon after Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine 85 per cent were in favour of Ukraine joining the EU and 75 per cent favoured Ukrainian accession to NATO.
In that same year, President Andrzej Duda called for Ukraine to be given an “express path” to EU membership while the then Conservative (PiS) prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, declared that “we want to support Ukraine in its efforts to join”.
Last year, Poland’s current centre-left government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, supported the start of membership talks with Ukraine and in May Poland signed an agreement with Ukraine which included a commitment to support Kyiv’ negotiations with Brussels.
However, during this year’s presidential election campaign, three right-wing opposition candidates, Karol Nawrocki (PiS), Sławomir Mentzen (Confederation) and the maverick ultra-right winger Grzegorz Braun, who finished second, third and fourth in the first round of the election polling 51 percent between them, all opposed Ukrainian membership.
Nawrocki went on to win the run-off against the Tusk government candidate Rafał Trzaskowski pledging opposition to Ukrainian membership of both NATO and the EU.
Since Russia’s invasion, Poland has been one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters, providing large amounts of military, humanitarian and economic support, as well as being the primary destination for the millions of refugees fleeing the war.
A study conducted in July 2022 found that 77 per cent of Poles had been personally involved in helping Ukrainian refugees, spending around €2 billion of their own funds while almost two-thirds expressed approval of the then PiS government’s staunch support for Ukraine.
However, in the new IBRiS study, 46 per cent of respondents said that Poland should either reduce (26 per cent) or stop (20 per cent) its military aid to Ukraine. Only 5 per cent wanted to see that help increasing while 35 per cent said it should continue at the same level.
However, 45 per cent of respondents think that Warsaw’s support for Ukraine improves Poland’s own security, while 37 per cent do not.
Only 15 per cent favoured sending Polish troops to Ukraine on a peace mission after the war, with 64 per cent against such a solution.
Not surprising therefore that the Tusk government recently rejected the idea of the Ukraine envoy of US president Donald Trump of Poland being part of a force deployed in Ukraine after a peace deal to end the war.
The IBRiS survey found that on ending the war 62 per cent believed that Ukraine should hold peace talks with Russia even without a ceasefire, with 15 per cent against.
Meanwhile opinion was evenly divided on how the war should end with 35 per cent believing Kyiv should accept the loss of some territory to end the war while 34 per cent disagreed.
