Belgium’s effort to push people into working longer looks to be backfiring — at least in the short run.
Instead, the average retirement age dropped just months after a major pension reform was introduced, data reported June 25 show.
“People feel an urgency to retire now,” Mathias Celis, a behavioural scientist at the University of Ghent, told Brussels Signal June 30. “It’s a reaction to the fear of losing rights.”
Belgians have been retiring nearly eight months earlier in 2025 than in the previous year, despite a pension reform raising the legal retirement age to 66.
“It is striking that for the first time in years, the actual retirement age is showing a solid decline,” said human resources provider Partena Professional, the source of the data.
“The debate around stricter penalties for early retirement may possibly have caused a temporary spike in people trying to lock in older, more generous conditions,” Arne Maes, senior economist at BNP Paribas Fortis, told Brussels Signal.
The pensions reforms triggered a familiar psychological response: fear of losing something people feel entitled to, Celis says.
So the reform triggered a loss aversion response, he explains: “Belgians don’t interpret the reform as a neutral policy shift. They see it as: ‘I worked for this — now you’re taking it away.’ That kind of loss framing is hugely powerful.”
Besides the age hike, the government has made it harder to retire early, and brought in a delay in pension bonus payments for people who stay longer, as well as stricter conditions for survivor benefits and minimum pensions.
Economists warn such behavioural shifts, even if temporary, add additional stress on a system already under pressure.
Belgium’s pension model relies heavily on a pay-as-you-go system. In a system like this, pensions for retirees are not funded in advance, but are financed directly by the contributions of people who are still working.
So the fewer workers relative to retirees, the greater the strain.
Moreover, the ratio of workers to retirees dropped from 4:1 in the 1990s to 3:1 today and could fall to 2:1 by 2060. According to figures cited by pensions minister Jan Jambon.
If more people retire earlier, “younger generations will either see higher taxes or slower wage growth. Their raises could be used to fund other people’s pensions, or diverted into second-pillar savings,” Koen De Leus, chief economist at BNP Paribas Fortis, told Brussels Signal.
That second pillar — workplace pensions funded by employers — remains marginal in Belgium, where public pensions are much more important than private ones.
The government wants to triple current private contribution levels, from about 1 per cent of salary mass to 3 per cent, De Leus explained.
“But this won’t happen overnight,” he said. “And in the meantime, the core system stays under pressure.”
The pensions prognosis is especially concerning for younger workers, added De Leus, co-author of a book on the five biggest trends shaping the global economy — including ageing.
The way the Belgian government introduced the reform helped trigger the backlash, he said.
“There was little clarity, and even the incentives — like the pension bonus — came with delays and caveats. For most people, the only thing that was clear was: ‘I’ll lose if I wait.’”
Research from Belgian universities found when people perceive a change as a loss of acquired rights, they react more strongly than they do to a potential gain of equal value — a pattern known as “loss framing.”
Celis says the government failed to counter that instinct.
“If the messaging had been: ‘You can choose to work longer and benefit,’ the effect might have been different,” he said.
“But the political and media discourse focused on what would be taken away. That’s why people rushed.”
The broader political climate amplifies that reaction, he said.
“Trust in government is very low in Belgium,” Celis said.
“People are not sure how or if the promised reforms will be applied. That enhances their sense of panic, which makes them act in a way that’s not optimal economically,” he said.
Indeed, when people retire earlier, the monthly pension amount they receive is smaller.
The current drop in retirement ages is a short-term distortion — but a costly one, De Leus said.
“The reforms were meant to relieve the system gradually. But if too many people exit now, that transition becomes harder. You get more pressure on the public budget just as you’re trying to bring it under control,” he said.
Many people acted quickly not because it was the better option, but because it felt safer, Celis said.
“It’s the iceberg paradox,” he said. “People would rather accept a small, certain loss today than risk a bigger, unclear one later.”
Simulations — for example, showing workers how much more they might earn by staying employed longer — could help shift behaviour over time, he said.
“Everyone knows we’ll have to work longer,” he said. “But if you frame that as a choice with benefits, rather than a loss of rights, the reaction can be very different.”
