Norwegians will vote for their next government on Sept 8, but the national-conservative and anti-immigration Progress Party, despite being the second-largest party in the polls, seems unlikely to become part of the governing coalition.
The party’s confrontational leader Sylvi Listhaug and her dreams of becoming the first prime minister from the Progress Party have been undermined by several factors. The reasons include the return of former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Norwegian politics as a Labour minister, the downfall of the liberal-conservative Conservative Party, and disputes over who would be the right-wing’s prime ministerial candidate.
Firstly, Stoltenberg, who held the top post in NATO for 10 years, surprisingly made a political comeback as Labour finance minister in February. Now the Labour Party is polling ahead of the competition at 27 per cent, after experiencing one of the most dramatic shifts in popularity in Norwegian political history. Only in December, the social democratic group had some of the lowest voter support in more than a decade.
The second-best performing party, the right-wing Progress Party, has lost momentum after reaching its peak in late 2024, and its slump is one of the causes is the current success of Labour.
Shortly before Stoltenberg’s return in January 2025, the government coalition between the Labour Party and the agrarian Centre Party, formerly known as the Farmer’s Party, collapsed due to disagreements over the implementation of EU energy rules. This split gave Labour a chance to boost their dreadful position in the polls.
“The Labour Party was, so to speak, free to pursue their own policies without having to negotiate everything,” Professor at the Institute for Media and Communication at Oslo University, Eli Skogerbø, states. The political freedom from the failed government coalition and policies to stabilise energy prices breathed new life into the polls for Labour.
Still, experts emphasise that a key to invigorating the party’s polling position was reinforcing the team of ministers with Jonas Støre a former prime minister, and Stoltenberg, recently retired NATO Secretary General: “When he returned, a lot of the hopes and ambitions of former Labour voters actually came back. That also strengthened the popularity of the government,” Bernt Aardal, Professor Emeritus at Oslo University.
The combined experience from the new Labour government helped regain confidence from voters, Skogerbø underscores – especially as uncertainty was unusually high in light of the incoming Trump administration in the US and the war in Ukraine.
While the Labour Party enjoyed impressively improved polling numbers, the Conservative Party continued its decline. Voters largely shifted to either the more outspoken Progress Party or the seemingly safe and secure harbour of Labour. “The Conservative Party seemed to lack some clout vis-à-vis the Labour Party,” Bernt Aardal asserts.
Additionally, a major issue for the Conservative Party and its leader and former prime minister, Erna Solberg, was a controversial news story from 2023: It was exposed that Solberg’s husband was extremely active on the Norwegian stock market while his wife presided as prime minister. Solberg declined knowing about her husband’s trading habits, but voters still remain somewhat sceptical towards her, experts believe.
“More people than me would say that it would have been good for the party to change their leader before the election campaign started,” Skogerbø notes.
To make matters worse for the non-socialist bloc, a growing contention burgeoned between the Conservative Party and the Progress Party.
“The Progress Party felt that the Conservatives had been too soft, too unclear, too moderate,” Bernt Aardal says.
The Conservative Party’s lack of aggressiveness and strong political statements paved the way for the Progress Party to cement themselves as the main challenge to the status quo.
“They [the Progress Party] started to position themselves very much as sort of the main opposition party in contrast with Labour and the red-green parties.” Though this raised the Progress Party’s standing among some voters, the right-wing parties would start butting heads. The bloc especially clashed on their primary candidate for the top position as prime minister.
While Sylvi Listhaug has avoided declaring herself as a prime ministerial candidate, she has insisted that the biggest party should automatically be first in line for the job. Yet, the remaining conservative and right-leaning parties disagree wholeheartedly. “There’s a lot of tension between these four parties that has almost exploded due to the idea that Sylvi Listhaug could become prime minister,” Bernt Aardal explains.
“Solberg has been quite vocal lately, saying that the idea of Sylvi Listhaug as prime minister scares voters, including conservative voters or moderate voters on the right side of the spectrum. They are not very much a fan of her.” He adds that even many right-wing voters prefer the current Labour Party prime minister, Jonas Støre, over the Progress Party’s leader.
“This issue has created a lot of problems for the right-wing bloc,” Peter Egge Langsæther, from the University of Oslo and a specialist in voter and political behaviour, reckons. He points to the two blocs being close until recently in the polls: “This has probably contributed to both some liberal voters moving to the Greens and some Conservative voters moving to the Labour Party. And that could have been the final straw [for the chances of a right-wing government].”
Eli Skogerbø highlights Sylvi Listhaug’s confrontational nature as a main reason for the opposition against her. “She is so controversial and that it’s not necessarily a good selling point for the non-socialist bloc.” Back in 2018, Listhaug had to resign as Minister of Justice after accusing the Labour opposition of putting “terrorist rights” before national security. The condemning comments were made because Labour helped defeat a bill that would have given the state the right, without judicial review, to strip individuals of Norwegian citizenship if they were suspected of terrorism. Her resignation ensured that the Progress Party was not forced to leave the government coalition.
Ironically, Listhaug’s confrontational approach is possibly what has helped cause the party’s earlier rise in the polls. “The rise of the Progress Party can partly be explained by the party leader who is very vocal and very conflict-orientated,” Skogerbø assesses. According to the polls, the party stands to win a significant number of young voters – especially young men. A strong presence on social media, such as TikTok, has ensured backing from the young target group. In fact, the Progress Party dominated the recent mock election at schools across Norway.
However, the party’s success in the national election will depend on whether young men actually turn up at polling stations. And even if they do, the chance of a right-wing victory currently seems slim, based on the most recent polling data. “There is a slight advantage for the left. They seem more likely to win and they have the momentum now at the end of the campaign,” Peter Egge Langsæther determines, before adding: “Although nothing is decided yet.”
