Fresh immigration wave to hit the EU as Pakistan and Taliban set South Asia on fire

Peace talks between embattled Pakistan and Afghanistan collapsed earlier this week in Istanbul. Islamabad demands written Taliban guarantees to crush Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in Afghanistan, while Kabul calls it impossible and blames the escalation on airstrikes. Pakistani Defence Minister has warned of “open war”, borders are sealed and Europe is faced with a fresh illegal immigration surge, comparable with the Syrian civil war surge.

Last weekend alone, clashes killed five Pakistani soldiers and 25 TTP fighters. The latest round of violence erupted when Pakistani jets hit Kabul on October 10, retaliating for a Kashmir bombing that killed 26 civilians. Then, as the Taliban seized border posts, clashes claimed dozens of Pakistani troops and hundreds of militants, while the UN reported 37 civilians dead and 425 wounded. A Doha truce collapsed on October 17, after fresh Pakistani air strikes.

Pakistan cites UN proof of Taliban sheltering TTP militants, yet it demands things that Kabul cannot enforce over tribal networks, as there is no centralised government control in a country were provinces are ruled by clans and warlords. So, while Pakistan launches pre-emptive strikes, skirmishes persist and Kabul promises payback. At the same time, India eyes proxy gains, China guards its Belt and Road initiative, Russia is concerned with the security of pipelines and energy market wobbles — which means that Europe pays the bill.

Still, it is illegal immigration that poses the biggest threat to Europe. Pakistan hosts around three million Afghans, of which it deports thousands on a monthly basis, only for them to flee Afghanistan again. Chaos now further aggravates undocumented flows through Iran, Turkey, and the Balkans to the EU. The first half of 2025 saw 250,000 asylum petitions from South Asia — up 30 per cent — with Afghans filing over 100,000.

Pakistanis flee too. With Ahmadis being lynched, thousands vanishing in Balochistan yearly, blasphemy laws arming mobs, and journalists being thrown in jail together with dissidents, many Pakistanis wish to leave their country and do so by any means possible.

The paradox here is that Islamabad demands EU rights for its diaspora, while crushing minorities at home. And what is really beyond any reasonable explanation, is that Brussels bankrolls this: €100 million of annual aid and €8 billion in GSP+ trade facilities. The EU’s June review of Pakistan’s progress noted blasphemy horrors and disappearances, but no sanctions or cuts followed. European taxpayers actually end up funding Islamabad’s military operations.

So, what next? Proxy warfare is expected to grind on: Raids, bombings, artillery barrages, skirmishes, firefights, air force sorties, but no full scale invasion. This means that a refugee tsunami will almost surely swamp Lampedusa, the Greek islands and central European cities -potentially larger than the 2015 one.

Coming from a region where Islamist ideology is deeply embedded in the popular culture, this influx will certainly cause trouble in the Old Continent. In its turn, this will further boost national-conservative parties across Europe. Brussels will then whine and blame “populism”, while ignoring and denying its open-door complicity. But it will be too late.

Frontex already reports a 40 per cent rise in Eastern Mediterranean crossings since the beginning of October. Boats arrive daily, welfare systems suffer, security risks mount. Add then there is the human cost: Thousands of women and girls trafficked, children lost in transit, entire villages emptied, while modern-day slave trade flourishes. One would expect that progressives and human rights activists should be gravely worried, while actively trying to fix things.

Europe, after all, does have serious leverage, if it decides to use it. One may not be able to reason with the Taliban, but asylum denial to Afghans should dissuade many from coming here. And there are very persuasive ways to put pressure on Pakistan to control the crisis. Slash GSP+ now. Tie every cent to militia containment, cross-border deescalation and respect for human rights. Then fortify EU borders, making it clear that the gates are now closed. In a word act — or drown in the flood.