Danish results show voters flee party of PM Frederiksen

Consider Denmark’s recent municipal elections: They have shaken Danish politics ahead of next year’s national election, with all parties in government receiving abysmal voter support. The election outcome can be seen as the final blow to the chances of the current government, led by Social Democrat Mette Frederiksen, continuing in power.

Last month’s result reflects the ever-growing dissatisfaction with the government, across the political spectrum from Social Democrats to centre-right liberals, two election experts said in an interview with Brussels Signal: “The strongest message from the election is that the government is not popular,” said Rune Stubager, Professor at Aarhus University, a specialist in electoral behaviour.

At the same time, the reverberations of the election draw up the contours of possible themes for the national election: Political focus on welfare policies, migration, increasing discontent with support for Ukraine – and the surprising possibility of a centre-right, right-wing government.

The biggest Danish party, Frederiksen’s Social Democrats, suffered the most overwhelming loss. For months, the party has seen voters leave for the nationalist and populist party, Dansk Folkeparti, due to disgruntlement with the current immigration policy and rising cost of living.

Now the municipal election has highlighted that Social Democrats are also bleeding supporters to the Green Left (SF), offering a stronger focus on welfare and social policies.

However, the problems for the Social Democrats go much deeper than promising higher welfare spending, addressing rising cost of living, and sticking to a hard line on migration. New polls show even further decline in voter backing. “They are really on the defensive on all fronts. It’s a bit hard to see what the solutions are supposed to be,” says Kasper Møller Hansen, expert in Danish elections and professor at Copenhagen University.

He emphasises that the party faces citizens’ unhappiness with Prime Minister Frederiksen as the leader of Denmark, and fleeing voters looking to other parties to both the Right and the Left.  Already, Social Democratic leader Frederiksen has announced a change to the party’s political course to win back lost voters. “My expectation is that we will see a Social Democratic campaign this spring, where the party will try to position itself with more left-leaning economic proposals”, Stubager said.

On migration, Frederiksen insists that her party will not budge and will remain tough on immigration policies. Since before the last national election in 2019, where Mette Frederiksen came to power, she efficiently shut down the otherwise big Danish debate on immigration policies. It is considered that lenient immigration policies were a key reason preventing the Social Democratic party from winning elections throughout the first decade of the 2000s.

By adopting a hard line on migration and integration, she wrestled back voters especially from Dansk Folkeparti and centre-right parties.

Still, Professor Kasper Møller Hansen expects immigration policy to become a central topic for next year’s election. For weeks, Danish media have been consumed by a controversial proposal on remigration from nationalist Dansk Folkeparti, effectively kickstarting a country-wide discussion on immigration. “That means we are looking at an election where, all of a sudden, the debate about immigration policy is back in full blaze,” assesses Møller Hansen.

Some voters are now returning from the Social Democrats to the Right, sparking the chance of a centre-right and right-wing government after the next election – an outcome that was deemed all but likely by many political commentators for years.

The governing centre-right, liberal Venstre also experienced a significant fall in voter support in the municipal election. Now, Venstre seemingly wants to distinguish itself even more from the rest of the current coalition government and also establish itself as a potential leader of a new right-wing government.

Just last week, Venstre opened the door potentially to abandoning the Council of Europe’s Convention on Nationality. According to Stubager, the effect would be limited in terms of expediting criminal migrants out of Denmark, but the tactics behind the idea are much more telling – putting further pressure on the governing partners, the Social Democrats and centre-right Moderates, to address the issue of ousting felonious people with immigrant backgrounds.

Lastly, Danish support for Ukraine could also become a central topic ahead of the national election. A new poll by the defence media OLFI shows that support from Danes remains high; still, a growing number of citizens feel Denmark is sending too much money to Ukraine instead of spending it on national issues. “For some voters, it actually ends up overshadowing things. Some get the impression that she [Mette Frederiksen] is more interested in Ukraine and what happens there, and in spending money on that, than in the domestic situation,” states Stubager.

He continued: “We have yet to see parties really come out clearly and take the position that support should be scaled back, apart from Dansk Folkeparti. But Danmarksdemokraterne [a right-wing party] are slowly moving in that direction.” Together the two parties are edging close to a combined 20 percentage points in the newest polls.

Frederiksen defends the government’s support for Ukraine and maintains it is a way of protecting Denmark against Putin. Denmark’s military aid allocation is among the highest compared to pre-war GNP, the Kiel Institute reports.

With the current political situation, Professor Møller Hansen finds it unlikely that the next government will be based on left-wing parties with Mette Frederiksen as Prime Minister. 

“She can’t really align herself with the left-wing bloc, not unless she makes a markedly different shift in course on especially immigration policies,” asserts Kasper Møller Hansen.

He sees a more likely government assembling around a centre-right, right-wing coalition, possibly led by Venstre. Alternatively, another government across the political spectrum including the Social Democrats and more centre-right and centre-left parties.

Either way, the tombstone of the current government has almost already been carved.