The future stability of Italy’s right-wing governing coalition has come under scrutiny after Roberto Vannacci, an MEP and until recently deputy secretary of the Lega (League), announced his departure from the party.
Following a prolonged period of internal disputes, Vannacci met with the party leader and Minister of Transport, Matteo Salvini, yesterday. “I care about you, but my path is different,” he reportedly told Salvini.
Vannacci is now preparing to launch his own political movement, positioned to the Right of the government and outside the ruling coalition. That could syphon off votes and place pressure on the alliance ahead of the next general election in 2027.
Since entering politics in 2023, initially as an independent, Vannacci — a former general in the Italian army — has tapped into the frustrations of a segment of the right-wing electorate dissatisfied with the government’s approach to immigration, security and the perceived erosion of national identity.
More recently, one of his key campaign issues has been “remigration”, advocating policies aimed at returning immigrants to their countries of origin, either voluntarily or through legal enforcement.
“Many ordinary voters expected much more in terms of immigration management,” said Max Ferrari, a journalist and long-time Lega activist who once ran the party’s TV channel and supported Vannacci’s entry into politics.
“[Italian Prime Minister Giorgia] Meloni is constrained by the EU but much more needs to be done on security issues,” he added.
Vannacci capitalised on these sentiments, eventually receiving an offer from Salvini to stand as a Lega candidate in the 2024 European elections. There, he secured around 500,000 votes and following this, he was appointed deputy secretary of the party.
“The problem,” Ferrari continued, “began when Vannacci, once inside the party, started creating his own personalistic associations directly linked to him, which many in the Lega saw as a party within the party.
“This created tensions that were difficult to resolve. He is not easy to manage, does not hold back in his comments and often makes provocative statements.”
Recently, he suggested that the Lega should be “Vannacised”, a remark that many in the party interpreted as a deliberate provocation.
“The situation gradually deteriorated until it became impossible to fix,” Ferrari added.
Vannacci’s departure has been criticised by several figures within the centre-right coalition.
“He is a traitor to his party, to Salvini who appointed him as deputy, and to the entire centre-right coalition,” said Francesco Giubilei, president of Nazione Futura, a conservative think tank close to the government.
“He should resign as a Member of the European Parliament.”
Vannacci has made no secret of his intention to launch a new right-wing political movement. That could attract extreme-right and neo-fascist groups, as well as segments of the electorate disillusioned with the government, anti-system voters, and non-voters.
It is not yet clear how he will do this, whether by founding a bona fide political party or a kind of parliamentary group loyal to him.
Citing high-level sources, Giubilei dismissed the idea that such a movement could become a “fourth pillar” of the centre-right alongside Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), the Lega and Forza Italia (Forward Italy).
“None of the three main parties wants this. He is no longer part of the system,” he added.
According to polling analysts quoted by the daily La Stampa, if Vannacci were to launch his own party, his current support would be estimated at around 2 per cent to 2.5 pr cent in a national election, potentially peaking at 3 pr cent to 5per cent in more optimistic scenarios.
Giubilei warned that the creation of a far-right movement could, in the long term, undermine the electoral success of Italy’s centre-right, especially in the 2027 general election.
“Italy is increasingly moving towards a two-bloc system,” he said.
“In the 2022 national elections, the centre-right was united and formed the current government, while left-wing parties ran separately. Today, the left is trying to unite in a broader coalition to challenge the right as a single front. In such a bipolar system, even 2 per cent to 3 per cent can be decisive.
“By taking these votes away from the centre-right, Vannacci ends up benefiting the Left,” he said.
It is for this reason, Giubilei concluded, that “we can expect the new Vannacci movement to be widely promoted by left-leaning media, with the aim of weakening the right as a whole”.
