Estimations by the Spanish Government of the effects of a mass regularisation of illegal migrants are severely underestimating the real numbers, a report issued by the police has found.
Spain’s socialist administration under Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is preparing to launch one of the largest migrant regularisation programmes in recent European history, granting residence and work permits to hundreds of thousands of undocumented foreigners.
While the official line insists the measure will benefit around 500,000 people, an internal police assessment warns the true number could reach as high as 1.35 million and risks creating a powerful pull factor across the Schengen area.
The extraordinary regularisation, approved by royal decree in late January 2026, targets foreigners present in Spain before December 31, 2025, who can prove at least five months’ residence (or who had applied for international protection by that date) and hold no criminal record.
Successful applicants will receive a one-year residence and work permit, valid nationwide and across any sector. Applications are expected to open in April and close at the end of June 2026.
Migration minister Elma Saiz has described the policy as a pragmatic step to recognise the economic contributions of migrants, reduce informal labour and bolster Spain’s welfare state amid labour shortages and demographic decline.
Sánchez has framed it as both a moral imperative and an economic necessity, contrasting sharply with the stricter border policies seen in much of the rest of Europe and the US.
Yet a leaked “risk analysis” from the National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF), part of Spain’s National Police and dated January 29, 2026, paints a far more alarming picture.
According to the document, reported on yesterday by news outlet El Confidencial, between 750,000 and 1 million undocumented residents are likely to apply, with an additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers also qualifying.
In the most conservative scenario, the total could still exceed 1 million, potentially reaching 1.35 million.
The report further cautions that the lenient criteria combined with Spain’s perceived “permissiveness” could trigger “secondary movements”.
According to police analysis, the announcement by Madrid has made serious waves, especially in Latin America.
It is being interpreted “in the countries of origin as a very relevant attraction factor”, the report states.
The CNIF has compiled a wealth of material, from social networks and the so-called dark web, with information in numerous languages on how to achieve regularisation in Spain.
It also highlights the lack of internal border controls and the free movement of persons in 25 European Union countries in the Schengen area, predicting “secondary movements from other countries in the Schengen area”.
An estimated 200,000 to 250,000 additional irregular migrants from other Schengen countries may head to Spain each year, drawn by the prospect of swift legalisation.
The discrepancy has fuelled fierce criticism from opposition parties and conservative media.
The centre-right Popular Party has accused Sánchez of understating the scale to deflect from other controversies, while warning of overwhelmed public services and a dangerous “pull effect”.
Right-leaning outlets have echoed police concerns, highlighting potential security gaps and administrative strain on immigration offices.
Some estimates place Spain’s undocumented population at around 840,000 as of early 2025, predominantly from Latin America.
