Hungarian elections: The EU’s dangerous wishful thinking

After Poland, Georgia, and Romania, it was clear that the Hungarian elections would be the next testing ground for the EU’s electoral interventionism, with the underlying risk that Brussels and certain other capitals might mistake their wishes for reality. 

Their wish is simple. After four outright majorities and countless conflicts, and after years of despising Orbán, they can only envisage one possible outcome: A crushing victory for his opponent, Péter Magyar, even before the campaign has begun. For months, the mantra has been playing on a loop in chancelleries and newsrooms: Orbán is supposedly trailing far behind his rival, who is racing ahead with a staggering 15 to 20-point lead in some polls, amplified by social media and a pro-federalist intelligentsia for whom the result is already a foregone conclusion. 

The reality is that these elections will be tight, just as they were in 2022, and will be decided along political, ideological, geographic, and generational lines, as in other countries. On one side, an incumbent Prime Minister in power for 16 years, the most experienced among his peers, Brussels’ nemesis, with a stable electorate among older voters and, generally, outside Budapest. On the other side, a maverick, controversial candidate with no experience, highly active on social media, popular in Budapest and among young voters, under the influence of the European People’s Party and adept at double-speak. A hard-fought contest that will be decided at the ballot box and that Fidesz could very well…win, as evidenced by the recent result of a by-election. 

Of course, everyone is entitled to dream, but given the EU’s recent electoral track record, there is reason to fear that Brussels and Co. might be tempted to turn their wishes into reality, whatever it takes. For example? By continuing to wield the threat of financial blackmail, as in Poland, where it was decisive in bringing Tusk to power. Or by sanctioning and harassing the outgoing government, even in the streets, while sowing doubt about the vote, as in Georgia. Or by tolerating the annulment of an election on false pretences, cynically playing the “Putin card,” and manipulating disinformation, as in Romania. 

Or with the full arsenal, since Orbán’s Hungary is public enemy number one for the vision championed by the European Parliament, von der Leyen, and some European capitals, whose flagship project is Ukraine, including its fast-track accession to the Union. Orbán is the main obstacle to this bold and unpopular decision, and the opportunity to oust him is tempting, even indirectly through other countries. Hence the standoff that Zelensky initiated by blocking the Druzhba pipeline just two months before the Hungarian elections, even though it is fully operational. Hungary responded to this blackmail by blocking the crucial €90 billion loan, a veto the EU would have preferred to avoid, since it had hoped to mark the four-year anniversary of the conflict with the staged adoption of this last-resort measure. 

Six weeks from the vote, tensions are at their peak, and it seems that anything goes in Brussels, both before and after the elections. Before the vote, through covert interventions, subsidised fact-checking, and veiled threats. After, following a likely Orbán victory, by punishing Hungary even further for voting “wrong” once again. A Fidesz win would trigger an unprecedented financial, legal, and political offensive. Imagine: the Commission extending arbitrary sanctions against Hungarian universities; proposing further financial retaliation measures (including the SAFE defence fund); the Court publishing its ruling against Hungary’s child protection law, which it has carefully hidden until after the elections; the Parliament holding a grand pomp and circumstance reception for the loser; von der Leyen taking an even stronger stand for Ukraine regarding Druzhba.

And above all, everyone would be eager to wield the long-desired nuclear option: Suspending Hungary’s voting rights in the Council, something even some governments (notably in The Hague and Stockholm) openly call for. A punishment in principle, but also a convenient manoeuvre to push through unanimous decisions on Ukraine, and a message to Bratislava and Prague, should they dare to follow Budapest’s lead. 

Some see the upcoming elections as the perfect moment to definitively isolate Orbán after his likely victory, or even to eject Hungary from the EU. Yet once again, they would be making the mistake of mistaking their wishes for reality. Sovereigntist ideas are gaining momentum, especially in Washington, and Brussels’ nemesis has meanwhile become Trump’s best European ally. Isolation, you say? A perilous exercise for Brussels to pursue a political vendetta when relations with the White House are already at rock bottom. Brussels and Co. are left with little choice but to let the Hungarians vote without interference and to accept the results. So, keep calm Brussels, and unlike the Poles, Georgians, and Romanians, let the Hungarians vote.