Israel sizes up its next enemy: Will Turkey become the new Iran?

It should by now be rather clear. President Trump’s statements do not say it forthrightly, but make it understood: The US is aiming at a regime change in Tehran, or rather, it will take a shot at it and see what develops. Not being completely open about it makes sense too. The objective of crippling Iran militarily and obliterating its nuclear ambitions is one thing. To oust the Mullahs is another -behind which lies the longstanding yearning of Israel.

One must bow to how Israel takes on things. A couple of years ago, after a bloody attack on its soil and citizens, it found itself up against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, unrest in Syria and, behind all this, Iran. The Jewish nation went on full combat mode. Since October 7, 2023, it has dealt with all imminent threats one by one, fighting bitterly and incessantly. And now it turns on the mother ship, hitting it hard. Impressive, by all means. 

Israel, of course, enjoys the utmost support of the United States of America. It is not alone in this campaign. Far from it, Washington’s backing is unapologetic, staunch and very much real, on both the diplomatic and military fronts. In fact, it often feels like Jerusalem leads and America follows. Whoever messes with the State of Israel ends up in a difficult state of affairs, facing the IDF together with Uncle Sam. So, where does this stop?

It is not yet certain at all that the ongoing war against the Islamic Republic of Iran will deliver the desired result of toppling the country’s regime. Iran is neither Iraq, nor Syria. The Islamic Revolution is not a Baath-like political party run by a clan-based power structure. It is a deeply entrenched administrative and social establishment. And then, Iranians are an ancient, proud nation. They will not be easy to place under some new puppet leadership.

Still, there is a chance that the Tehran government will eventually crumble and collapse. But even if it does not, this will not change the fact that once USA and Israel are done with bombing Iran, the country will be unrecognisable. If the war really lasts “up to a month”, as the POTUS stated, the Persian homeland will be devastated regardless of whether the Islamist clerics fall or not. The enemy will have been eliminated anyway, at least for some time, stripped of those means necessary to threaten Israel.

Will Jerusalem then call it a day? Or will it turn its sights on the next regional power that harbours antisemitic extremism and could pose a threat to the existence of Israel? Turkey should by now have begun to feel nervous. Over the past two decades, Ankara has shifted from a strategic ally to an open, venomous rival. President Erdogan has not minced words, recently declaring that Netanyahu has “surpassed Hitler in barbarism”, while his Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, has explicitly branded Israel a “rogue actor” and the “number one security threat” to the region.

This is no longer a mere diplomatic show for domestic consumption. Turkey has systematically built an infrastructure of hostility, providing a safe haven and funding for Hamas leadership while imposing a total trade embargo that seeks to strangle the Israeli economy. The Israeli response has been equally blunt. Figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir have long categorised the Turkish leadership as an “enemy” – even, in the words of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, an “existential threat”. 

As for IDF strategic planners, they now view Turkey not as a NATO asset, but as a source of regional turbulence that mirrors the Iranian model of proxy warfare. As Turkey has recently acted as a diplomatic and logistical shield for the Mullahs, things are only getting worse. Not to mention Ankara’s brotherly relationship with Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation that does not even recognize the State of Israel and wishes to see it wiped out. 

We are living in a time where anything appears possible. Once the Iranian “problem” is resolved, the victors will inevitably sweep the map for opponents who entertain malevolent intentions against them. Turkey may have long formed a central cog of the Atlanticist camp, but it is lately also acting as part of the very axis that Washington is currently dismantling. If it does not change course -which, to be honest, it is historically known to do when in dire straits- it could eventually find itself in the crosshairs. Nothing is unthinkable anymore.