Love or hate them, you have to admire them. The Israelis are pulling one trick after another. It’s almost like magic. You look the other way, and then, just like that, Israel does it again. The world may be burning down, and everyone may be counting their losses, but for Israel, the opportunity does not go wasted. Latest case: Lebanon. While the international community is focused on Iran, Jerusalem has launched a strategic offensive against Hezbollah, which may lead to a long-term occupation of Beirut’s territory.
This was never supposed to be about anything other than the Iranian regime, its nuclear capabilities and its ability to wage war against its Middle Eastern neighbours. Of course, Iran’s proxy puppets form part of the broader picture, but nobody told us that, while striking the Islamic Republic, one of the two key players that form the Western coalition would also embark on a full-scale ground invasion of another sovereign country. Yet this is exactly what we are looking at the moment.
How they do it is another story. Again, you have to admire them. Hezbollah’s entrenchment in the Lebanese political system is a longstanding problem, posing a continuous military threat, being a thorn on the side of Israel — one that it is now aiming to uproot once and for all. The task is not easy. Things are not simple at all. As in Iran, where the Islamic Revolution proves to be engraved in the social fabric, in Lebanon’s Shia majority areas Hezbollah is revered and Israel is detested. So the goal of this operation will have to be a realistic one.
Israel first invaded the Golan Heights in 1967 as a buffer zone. It never gave them up, fighting bitterly time and again for what now is a precious launchpad and citadel against the tumultuous plains of Syria. Jerusalem plays the long game. As we speak, millions of people in southern Lebanon are literally asked by the Israel Defence Forces to move out of their homes and into nowhere to go, in order for it to apply its Gaza knowhow to an area hundreds of square kilometres big.
And there it is. While you are looking at what is happening in the Persian Gulf and beyond the Zagros mountains, the ancient Mediterranean coastline goes on fire. The Israeli endgame here is not simply ridding the region from a nuclear threat and a rogue regime, as initially stated. Rather, it is to redraw the map in a manner that further guarantees its security in the decades to come. Suffice it to say, none of this would have been possible without the US.
As the full might of the US Armed Forces keeps pounding relentlessly anything across Iran that intelligence can point at, during the last week the IDF has been infiltrating, invading, capturing and grazing land in a massive push to the north, into Lebanese soil. Jerusalem is quietly settling a half-century account on its own doorstep. It is a masterclass in the redirection of global attention. Having been told that this was a strike against a nuclear threat, we are witnessing the territorial reconfiguration of the Levant. Courtesy of Washington.
And now look at the genius part. For as long as the campaign against Iran will be going on, Israel will be enjoying its free hand in South Lebanon, as it will be claiming to be defending itself against Iran and its proxies. Therefore, if the Iranian regime takes a little longer than expected before it falls, or does not fall at all and the US-Israel alliance figures out an alternative exit strategy which can claim victory, so much for the better. More time for Israel to unravel its plans: Expel more people, neutralise more land and dig in.
They are brutal air strikes and shelling, regardless of their “we warned you” dogma. They can be brutal on the ground too. And they are predominantly conscript units, like the 36th Ga’ash and 98th Ha-Esh divisions, or the battle-hardened Golani, most of them brought in from Gaza. This is a true warrior nation. However, while it is advancing on the ground, there is also a chance that its military alliance may be running into difficulties.
If Iran endures the hammering and keeps actively disrupting the flow of energy in the Middle East while attacking everyone in sight, Israel’s guarantor, champion and comrade in arms, the United States, will end up facing the music. Trump’s credibility in the region is already questionable. The whole war could in fact be turning into a boomerang. This is expected to eventually affect Jerusalem too. But in the meantime, Israel will have achieved yet another strategic goal under covering fire from Uncle Sam. Abracadabra.
Dollars and the old clerical flaws: does Leo XIV have questions to answer?