A senior figure in the Lebanese Forces, one of Lebanon’s main political parties, has stated: “Hezbollah is weaker than ever before.”
Speaking exclusively to Brussels Signal from Beirut on March 13, Joseph Gebeily argued that for the first time in decades, Lebanon has a real opportunity to significantly weaken the group, disarm it, restore full sovereignty over its territory and potentially reach a modus vivendi with Israel.
Gebeily is a member of the Executive Council in the Lebanese Forces (LF), affiliated internationally with the European People’s Party (EPP) in the European Parliament and broadly positioned within the centre-right.
He spent three decades in the US, forging close ties within political and diplomatic circles and engaging in international discussions on Lebanon’s political future.
“The historical problem Lebanon has faced since independence in 1946 is the absence of sovereignty due to continuous occupations,” Gebeily said.
“First the Palestinians, then the Israelis, then the Syrians, and finally Hezbollah, which is essentially an extension of Iran and has shaped the state and its geopolitical orientation.
“Today, its weakening gives Lebanon, for the first time, the possibility to fully exercise its sovereignty and democracy.”
Once celebrated as a bulwark against Israel and strengthened by political, economic, and military branches, Hezbollah now faces unprecedented pressure — militarily, politically and socially.
This has intensified after Israel’s new invasion of Lebanon earlier in March, aiming to destroy the organisation. Simultaneously, the Lebanese Government has declared Hezbollah’s military wing illegal and tasked the army with disarming the group.
“This is the result of several factors emerging over recent years,” Gebeily said. “Military defeats, Trump’s election, and a significant shift in public opinion in Lebanon regarding Hezbollah.”
The turning point, he said, came with the 2024 war against Israel, following the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. “The losses were immense. Senior leaders were killed and Israeli operations — including the pager attacks — exposed serious vulnerabilities in Hezbollah’s intelligence and operational structures.”
“Pager attacks” refers to September 2024 incident when thousands of handheld pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies intended for use by Hezbollah exploded simultaneously in two separate events across Lebanon and Syria. The Israeli attack was nicknamed “Operation Grim Beeper”.
The November 2024 ceasefire, intended to initiate gradual disarmament, never fully materialised, highlighting what critics see as international inaction.
“Today’s Israeli strikes aim to achieve by force what diplomacy could not,” Gebeily noted.
Hezbollah’s vulnerability has been further shaped by Syria’s dramatic change. The fall of the Assad regime, a key Iranian ally, in December 2024 disrupted the main corridor for Iranian weapons to Hezbollah.
“The route still exists, but the new government in Damascus is openly hostile to Tehran and Hezbollah,” Gebeily said. “This has dramatically reduced the volume of weapons that can reach the group.”
Renewed US pressure on Iran since the return of US President Donald Trump in early 2025 has intensified Hezbollah’s challenges.
“Maximum pressure collapsed negotiations and tightened economic and military constraints on Tehran,” Gebeily said. “Hezbollah depends heavily on Iranian support and cannot escape the consequences.”
Inside Lebanon, public opinion has shifted decisively. “Most Lebanese no longer trust Hezbollah,” he observed. “They see it dragging the country into unwinnable wars to serve Iranian interests rather than Lebanese interests.”
The turning point, he said, was Hezbollah’s decision to bomb Israel after the February 28 assassination of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, prompting the Israeli invasion.
Today, around 80 per cent of the domestic population opposes Hezbollah maintaining an independent military force.
The Israeli attacks continue with daily airstrikes and a push southward, meeting resistance from Hezbollah militias.
“From public statements, Israel will not stop until Hezbollah is disarmed. The key question is: Who will do it? The Israelis or the Lebanese state? If the state wants to halt the bombings, it must disarm Hezbollah and provide guarantees,” Gebeily said.
The US could act as guarantor, potentially opening a new phase of co-operation between Lebanon and Israel, with restored Lebanese sovereignty.
The Lebanese conflict is part of a broader regional struggle between Iran and Hezbollah on one side and Israel and the US on the other.
“We must see what Trump decides regarding Iran, and as we know, he is often unpredictable,” Gebeily said.
Even if US pressure eases, he warned, “the war could continue until Hezbollah is fully disarmed”.
“Israel will not stop until its objective is achieved, especially given the failure of diplomatic disarmament.”
For Gebeily, the current crisis is also a historic opportunity to address Lebanon’s structural weaknesses. “The state must reclaim authority and ensure armed groups no longer operate outside its control,” he said.
Neutrality in regional conflicts — “no East, no West” — combined with decentralisation and institutional reform, could lay the foundation for a more stable Lebanon.
“Hezbollah’s current weakness reflects a broader reality,” Gebeily stated. “For too long, external actors and militias have dictated Lebanon’s fate.
“If the state succeeds now, Lebanon has a historic chance to restore its sovereignty and finally move beyond the era of armed factions dominating national politics.”
