Italy is heading toward a referendum on justice reform that could reshape the country’s political balance.
The referendum will take place on March 22–23 and was proposed by the government to improve judicial organisation, efficiency and internal discipline.
Critics, though, see it as an attempt to curb the influence of magistrates who could block government actions on issues such as immigration and corruption.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her coalition are using the vote not only to advance reform but also to demonstrate their political strength ahead of the 2027 national elections.
Early surveys, though, suggest an uncertain outcome, raising the possibility of a defeat that could weaken the government and energise opposition calls for early elections.
The Italian judiciary has long faced criticism for slow procedures and inefficiencies, which affect both economic performance and public trust.
At the same time, it is frequently criticised for what is seen as the politicisation of magistrates, who are often perceived to lean Left.
A distinctive feature of the Italian judiciary is the system of informal factions — networks of judges and prosecutors sharing similar professional philosophies or ideological leanings, generally left‑leaning. These can influence assignments, promotions and administrative decisions.
Critics argue that judicial interventions have sometimes slowed or blocked the implementation of government decisions.
More recently, magistrates have opposed or delayed government policies on illegal immigration and the closure or management of reception centres for migrants in Albania. That fuelled accusations from the Right that judicial actors resist measures presented as demanded by citizens.
At the heart of the referendum is the proposed separation of careers between judges and prosecutors, who currently belong to the same judicial body and can move between roles.
The government argues that separating these paths would strengthen impartiality and reduce the influence of internal factions.
Career separation is common across Europe: In 20 out of the 27 European Union countries, judges and prosecutors follow distinct professional paths, with dedicated training, promotions and assignments that supporters say help protect judicial independence.
Critics on the Left, though, argue that the changes could weaken judicial independence and allow greater political influence over prosecutions.
The debate around the referendum has quickly become political and electoral.
The government’s objective is not only to secure the reform but also to show electoral strength on an issue — the judiciary — that has long been seen as a stronghold of the political Left.
If the referendum passes, Meloni’s leadership would be reinforced heading into the 2027 campaign.
Recent opinion polls show the right‑wing bloc maintaining a strong advantage over left‑of‑centre opposition forces in Italy, with Fratelli d’Italia — the party of Giorgia Meloni — as the largest party and other right‑leaning parties adding to its strength. Main opposition parties such as the Partito Democratico and Movimento 5 Stelle lag behind.
Polls specifically on the justice referendum present a more mixed picture. Some surveys indicate close competition between the Yes and No camps, with a slight lead for the No side in certain polls. There is a large share of undecided voters, suggesting that public opinion on the judicial reform question remains divided.
For international observers, the referendum represents more than a domestic policy debate. It is a high‑stakes political gamble: A victory would reinforce the government’s mandate and strengthen its position ahead of 2027, while a defeat could open a new phase of political uncertainty and potentially accelerate the timeline for the next general election.
