The scandal this week involving the bugged conversations of the Hungarian foreign minister was intended to deal a fatal blow to the ruling camp in Hungary. Here is the alleged major scandal: Peter Szijjarto talks to Sergey Lavrov, supposedly selling him European Union secrets, the secrets of EU Council meetings at ministerial level. Transcripts of conversations intercepted in 2020 have been widely circulated in the European media. The problem is that, regardless of how one views contacts with Lavrov – and opinions in Europe are divided – it is difficult to find any real scandal in them.
The situation in Slovakia, the Hungarian government’s requests to the Russian government – it is hard to regard these as any great secrets. The conversation took place in 2020. Szijjártó emphasises that as many as 80 people are present at Council meetings and they all have mobile phones so its difficult to speak about any special secrets there. And the topics discussed there are widely reported in the media by the participants beforehand, and discussed at press conferences after the meetings. The Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs assured in an official statement of the “full transparency” of diplomatic activities and “loyalty to European Union partners”. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise.
The real scandal is that Szabolcs Panyi, an activist with Hungarian “non-governmental organisations” financed from abroad and opposition media outlets, is alleged to have passed on the foreign minister’s telephone number to one of Europe’s foreign intelligence services. This is the same man who published the transcript of a conversation from 2020. Panyi presents himself as an “investigative journalist”, but many observers say his actions bear no resemblance to journalism, let alone investigative journalism.
The story was revealed by the weekly Mandiner, which received an email on the matter from an anonymous informant. It contained, among other things, a recording of a conversation between Panyi and an unidentified interlocutor, a woman, in which Panyi allegedly passes on the minister’s telephone number. Its not clear when this conversation took place, from context it may be assumed it was last year,
The letter and the recording sent as an attachment reveal (their authenticity has been confirmed) that Szabolcs Panyi and other people associated with the opposition party TISZA are in contact with foreign secret services. Panyi denied his involvement in eavesdropping on the minister, arguing that practically everyone has the minister’s number.
Importantly, Szabolcs Panyi not only works with TISZA politicians but is also a friend of Anita Orbán (no connection to Viktor Orbán), who is tipped to become Hungary’s foreign minister should Péter Magyar win.
The unconventional move taken by opposition figures to discredit a key FIDESZ politician may, according to the Hungarian experts I spoke to, indicate that the opposition’s plan is falling apart. Orbán weathered Magyar’s attacks and launched a counter-offensive. The attempt to create the impression, using opinion polls – which are exceptionally unreliable in Hungary and have been wrong on numerous occasions – that the outcome was already decided, has failed.
Polling organisations more sympathetic to the right, such as the Nézőpont Institute, point to a close contest or even a lead for FIDESZ and a strong showing for a potential coalition partner – the Mi Hazank party. The big showdown at the rally on March 15 did not result in a triumph for TISZA, and there is evidence that Viktor Orbán attracted more supporters. His dynamic tour of the country, which the opposition did not expect on this scale, is drawing crowds in every town.
The focus of the campaign has shifted to issues of security, energy supplies, and attitudes towards the war and Ukraine. A very strong surge of support for FIDESZ emerged from the CPAC Hungary conference. Even Polish President Karol Nawrocki broke ranks and, despite attacks at home, visited Budapest and backed the Hungarian Prime Minister. A visit by US Vice President JD Vance is expected.
The opposition has therefore decided to resort to a smear campaign. The alleged leak about a fake assassination attempt on Orbán (I reported in Brussels Signal that this was a false plot, likely concocted by Magyar’s Polish political friends), wiretaps thrown onto the table in a sensationalist tone, overt interference by the secret services of other countries, whilst simultaneously accusing the government of such actions.
It all has one common denominator: Creating the artificial impression that the elections are neither fair nor lawful. Why? My Hungarian interlocutors have no doubt: This is laying the groundwork for action following Viktor Orbán’s victory. The European establishment will likely attempt to intervene and refuse to recognise these elections, seeking to have the results annulled. It has growing experience in this: The annulment of the first round of the presidential elections in Romania and the attempt to refuse to recognise the result of the presidential elections in Poland.
Within Hungarian opposition circles, such hopes are being voiced more and more frequently, albeit unofficially.
As early as last Monday, EC spokeswoman Anitta Hipper spoke of deep concern over press reports. “We expect the Hungarian authorities to provide a full explanation of this matter,” the Brussels representative emphasised, as quoted by Reuters, regarding the talks between Szijjártó and Lavrov. She added that the disclosure of confidential information from EU meetings to third countries, especially in the current geopolitical situation, is absolutely unacceptable.
But what is key is what is being said behind the scenes in EU institutions: There are voices suggesting that if the allegations are confirmed, Hungary could face serious consequences, including political sanctions or restricted access to certain information and decision-making processes within the EU. There are also suggestions that, regardless of the election result, Brussels will attempt to oust Prime Minister Orbán. Today, he is effectively the last major obstacle to the extra-treaty restructuring of the Union towards an even more centralised structure, with even more limited sovereignty for nation states.
There are already serious indications of this. Mika Aaltola, a Finnish politician and member of the European People’s Party (EPP) group – which includes politicians from Péter Magyar’s party and the Tisza Party – wrote in a post published on X that the European Union would intervene in the Hungarian elections through legal means should FIDESZ win. He is already putting forward claims of “rigged elections”.
The politician cites Article 279 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which would allow him to request an extraordinary measure from the Court of Justice of the European Union. Exactly how Mika Aaltola envisages this is unclear. The 279 article mentioned ‘provisional measures:’
This means that Brussels’ plan for Hungary is simple: Either it will succeed in defeating Orbán, or it will attempt not to recognise the election results. As can be seen, what is at stake is not only who will govern Hungary, but also whether voters in this country still have a real choice.
Is Peter Magyar panicking? Hungarian opposition suddenly looks shaky