Russia has pocketed an estimated €6 billion in fossil fuel revenues since the onset of Israeli and US strikes on Iran on February 28, with daily earnings surging 14 per cent above February’s average, according to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
The windfall comes as the Trump administration mulls easing sanctions on Russian oil to stabilise global energy markets roiled by the conflict, while the European Union continues to absorb 100 per cent of exports from Russia’s flagship Arctic Yamal LNG project.
The CREA analysis, spotlighted by German NGO Urgewald, reveals that Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues averaged €510 million per day in the week following the strikes – enough to purchase around 17,000 Shahed 136 attack drones daily at an estimated cost of $35,000 (€30,300) each, or nearly 12,000 at $50,000 (€43,300) per unit.
“The reality of fossil fuel geopolitics is that when markets panic, authoritarian exporters cash in,” said Alexander Kirk, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald.
“In less than two weeks, Russia has earned an estimated €6 billion from fossil fuel exports, money that ultimately feeds the Kremlin’s war machine.”
Meanwhile, Urgewald’s separate analysis of shipping data from last week showed that every single Yamal LNG cargo – totalling 1,543,347 tonnes – was delivered to EU ports in February 2026, marking the first such month since the project began operations in 2018 where no shipments diverted to Asia.
This represents a 0.4 per cent year-on-year increase in EU imports from Yamal, despite ongoing calls for tighter sanctions on Russian energy.
Seventeen of the 21 cargoes were transported by vessels operated by UK-based Seapeak and Greece’s Dynagas, with all ships insured in Europe.
Urgewald noted that the UK has introduced some new sanctions on Russian LNG, but has imposed nothing on the Arc7 tanker fleet, the vessels at the very heart of Yamal operations.
Based on average European natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub fluctuating between €29.8 and €33 per megawatt-hour in February, the value of these imports could approximate €690 million, highlighting the EU’s persistent reliance on Russian supplies amid its own energy security push.
“February’s numbers tell a stark story. Every single Yamal cargo went to Europe. Russia had no alternative customer and remained fully dependent on access to EU ports,” noted Sebastian Rötters, another Urgewald sanctions campaigner.
“When Moscow talks about redirecting gas elsewhere, the data tells a different story. For Arctic LNG, Europe remains the only market able to absorb these volumes.”
“The EU and UK continue to stand on the side lines and simply watch the action unfold. Targeting Yamal and the Arc7 fleet is the most direct lever available. Governments know it. They just need to act.”
The EU’s dependence persists, even as Vladimir Putin on March threatened to halt gas supplies to Europe and redirect exports elsewhere, citing the bloc’s planned ban on Russian gas and the Iran conflict’s market turmoil.
The European bloc is also being hampered by Hungary blocking new sanctions.
Yet, with no diversions outside Europe in February, analysts suggest Russia’s Arctic LNG operations hinge on European infrastructure, particularly during winter when only specialised Arc7 ice-class tankers – largely run by Western firms – can navigate the Gulf of Ob, an Arctic bay in the north of Russia.
This European facilitation carries added risks, including reports of FSB presence on these vessels. Campaigners urge the UK and EU to target Yamal, the Arc7 fleet, and associated maritime services to curb Russia’s winter exports.
Across the Atlantic, the Trump administration has already taken steps to ease pressure on global oil prices, which briefly soared past $100 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a 30-day sanctions waiver on March 6, allowing India to purchase Russian oil already at sea, describing it as a modest measure.
President Trump, following a phone call with Putin discussing Ukraine, energy, and the Iran conflict, signalled broader relief, stating the US would waive certain oil-related sanctions “until this straightens out” to ensure supply and lower prices.
EU officials have pushed back, with Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis warning that granting Russia sanctions relief would be “self-defeating” and undermine efforts to limit Moscow’s war revenues.
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol echoed this, cautioning against returning to Russian gas as “economically and politically wrong”.
Urgewald warns that a US rollback could hand Russia billions by closing the discount on its oil, currently sold at a steep markdown due to sanctions. ”
This is not a trade-off between Ukraine and energy prices. It is a trade-off between Ukraine and nothing,” Kirk added.
