Orbán is strong internationally, but will that be enough to ensure victory?

Orbán and Vance in Budapest: 'Vance ended his speech urging the Hungarian people to “go to the polls this weekend, stand with Viktor Orbán, because he stands for you”.' (Photo by Janos Kummer/Getty Images)

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It’s funny to read how the European left-wing media twist words. Ursula von der Leyen, through her words and actions – primarily by blocking EU funds – is doing everything in her power to support the leader of the Hungarian opposition, Péter Magyar; she simply calls it “safeguarding democracy”.

However, JD Vance in Budapest, Donald Trump on the phone wishing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán victory – the BBC, for example, describes it as an American “intervention”.

The European Left and the Hungarian opposition, now in disguise as  “centre-right”, have a major problem with American support for Orbán. It is seriously spoiling their plans.

Firstly, the US Vice President has explicitly named the scale of external interference in the Hungarian elections. He called it “disgraceful”: “What has happened in the midst of this election campaign is one of the worst examples of foreign election interference that I have ever seen or even read about,” said Vance.

It is worth remembering that this interference is not only political and financial in nature, but also intelligence-related. A few days ago, in Brussels Signal, I described how a leading opposition media activist is collaborating with the secret services of three European states, providing one of them with the foreign minister’s telephone number and then circulating the intercepted conversations through the media.

Kiev is also attempting to influence the composition of the government in Budapest,  threatening even Orbán with death and blocking oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline.

Secondly, Vance has not only strongly bolstered Orbán’s international standing and his special relations with world leaders – which, according to polls, are seen as a major asset by voters – but has also confirmed his main campaign message: If the opposition wins, it will comply with Brussels’ demands, cut us off from Russian oil (and Hungary has no alternative supply source) and thus destroy our economy. Vance said,  “The bureaucrats in Brussels have tried to destroy the economy of Hungary. They have tried to make Hungary less energy-independent. They have tried to drive up costs for Hungarian consumers, and they’ve done it all because they hate this guy,” he said.  “This guy” is, of course, Prime Minister Orbán.

Thirdly, Vance appealed to Orbán’s patriotism, refuting the allegations that the Prime Minister is cynical, presenting him from the outside as a staunch defender of the interests of the State and the nation.  “Under Viktor Orbán’s leadership, you have held on to the civilisational values that make a country worth living in in the first place.”

He called on voters to vote for Orbán, saying they should “stand up to the bureaucrats and the nihilists”.

He ended his speech urging the Hungarian people to “go to the polls this weekend, stand with Viktor Orbán, because he stands for you”.

And he asked the crowd: “I wonder, will you do it again? Will you stand against the bureaucrats in Brussels?” Will you stand for sovereignty and democracy? Will you stand for Western civilisation? Will you stand for freedom, for truth and for the God of our fathers?”

The response was thunderous applause across the sports arena.

This reached its peak when Vance spoke to Trump, which raised support for Orbán to the highest possible level under the circumstances.

Trump endorsed Orbán for doing “a fantastic job.”

These words show that the trouble Vice President Vance is bringing to Europe is greater than mere support for Prime Minister Orbán. Just as at the famous Munich conference in 2025 he called out the weakness of Europe under the current elites—its economic and military weakness—so now he bluntly diagnoses the state of its democracy. And he points out that a struggle is underway in Hungary that is far more important than the premiership. It is a battle for national sovereignty, freedom of speech, and, indirectly, for power across the entire continent.

Ahead of the elections scheduled for April 12, this is a powerful boost of energy and strength for Prime Minister Orbán, who is fighting the toughest campaign he has faced in 16 years. It does not resolve the biggest problem facing his camp, which is fatigue resulting from such a long period of rule by a single political force. However, it shifts the focus to a much more favourable terrain and shows voters the positive outcome of this durability and stability: Namely, the very strong position of a country that is, after all, not the largest in Europe.

This is why the opposition is trying to downplay the significance of this visit. Opposition leader Magyar wrote that he would cooperate with everyone, including the United States, and quoted Vance, who also diplomatically made a similar remark. But the opposition has a problem with Orbán’s success.

It would be untrue to say that the opposition media in Hungary – and, as is the case everywhere in Europe, they are in the majority – ignored the visit by US Vice President JD Vance. But they did everything they could to downplay its significance and “trivialise” it. On the homepages of main opposition websites, the focus is on Péter Magyar and prayers for his victory, whilst from the Vance and Orbán press conference they only picked up on the moment when the US Vice President says that Orbán will win, and the Hungarian Prime Minister makes a hand gesture signifying uncertainty.

Had he responded by clenching a fist in confidence, he would surely have been accused of plotting some kind of scam.

This is the essence of this Hungarian campaign. It is no coincidence that there will be no debate between the leaders of the two camps. Neither side hears the other, sees the other, nor wishes to talk. The opposition has decided that any substantive dispute is detrimental to it; only deliberately-stoked extreme emotions are to dominate, portraying the long-serving prime minister as a dictator who has lost touch with reality. For the government side, engaging in artificially provoked alleged scandals makes no sense whatsoever. And the best response to accusations of having lost touch with the grassroots is to throw the Prime Minister into the mix, to rally his supporters at massive rallies.

The success of this campaign, conducted both in small provincial towns and in Budapest, and the strength of support for the Prime Minister, took the Magyar camp by surprise. It turned out that the world in which no one wants to vote for Orbán anymore is a bubble. The opposition press is increasingly full of claims that the takeover of power is not as certain as was thought. The realignment of the polls is beginning – always amusing for the informed observer. TISZA is now said to be leading not by 20 points but by just a few. Somewhere, they even quote the Nézőpont Intézet, a polling firm close to the government, which predicts a 46 to 40 split in favour of Fidesz.

The battle will be fierce right to the end. Prime Minister Orbán was right to make a gesture of uncertainty. But there is no doubt that he is using all the assets at his disposal effectively, as can see during Vance’s visit. And there are still a few days to go before the election.