Sources within Ireland’s Government have reportedly claimed that Micheál Martin, the country’s former prime minister, is a frontrunner to replace Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission.
It comes as others suggest she may vacate the position next year in favour of becoming the Secretary General of NATO, with former German defence minister von der Leyen said to be a personal favourite of US President Joe Biden to replace Jens Stoltenberg, the current holder of the office.
According to a report by Irish news outlet extra.ie, so-called European “power brokers” are looking at Martin as a possible replacement for von der Leyen, with those inside the country’s government seemingly bullish on their former leader’s chances.
“Micheál Martin would be the perfect replacement,” one source reportedly told the publication, adding that he “ticks all the boxes”.
Martin currently occupies the positions of deputy leader, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Defence in Ireland’s ruling coalition partnership.
Due to his current and former roles in office, the source reportedly described Martin’s experience as bolstering his chances.
A number of external factors also seem to suggest that Martin could be in contention for the top EC job.
Despite a recent scramble for a new NATO leader, Stoltenberg announced last week that he would continue in the role for another year.
That would coincide with the end of von der Leyen’s current term as EC President, aligning with suggestions that she could forgo seeking a second term so she can replace Stoltenberg instead.
Martin’s position in Irish politics also points towards EC leadership being a possibility, given that there is growing disquiet regarding the minister’s leadership of his own Fianna Fáil party.
Seen as weak by some, a move to Europe would ensure a graceful exit for Martin, while allowing his party to appoint a new leader in time for Irish national elections in late 2024.
Martin is far from a shoo-in for the EC role, however, with Irish politicians sometimes overestimating their political prospects in transnational organisations.
The most infamous example was that of Mary Robinson, who abandoned her role as Ireland’s President early to chase a career in the United Nations. However, she failed to secure any role beyond her initial appointment as its High Commissioner for Human Rights.
Robinson later claimed that then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan had “bullied” her into abandoning her role as Ireland’s head of state early to move to the international organisation.
