France’s hard-right Reconquête party risks failing to secure any seats after European Parliament elections in June, according to a new poll.
With just over a month remaining until the vote, the European list for Reconquête, led by Marion Maréchal, niece of National Rally MP Marine Le Pen, garnered just 5.5 per cent support in a poll on April 25 by Ifop – with a projection of almost zero growth.
In France, seats in the European Parliament are distributed among the lists that obtain at least 5 per cent of the votes cast, by proportional representation based on the highest average. Seats are allocated to candidates in the order in which they appear on each list.
Marion Maréchal, the niece of Marine Le Pen, said that her party “has the chance to mobilise right-wing voters around a big fight” – a fight she termed “civilisational”. https://t.co/98b875wmU3
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) September 7, 2023
As a result of this system, Eric Zemmour’s Reconquête party could potentially end up without any representation in the EP, thwarting its European ambitions.
Nicolas Bay, Vice President of Reconquête and its only MEP, expressed confidence in the party’s prospects for the upcoming elections. He told Brussels Signal he predicted “a 7 to 8 per cent share of the vote”.
In an interview to be published shortly, Bay emphasised what he called the experience and knowledge of the party candidates.
“With Marion Maréchal we will have elected officials who know the files, who have parliamentary experience,” he said.
He anticipated Reconquête securing “seven or eight MEPs” who could align with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group in the EP, thus exerting influence on the European stage.
“We will be in a group that will weigh on the European chessboard,” Bay stated.
Referring to Reconquête’s aspiration to reform Europe from within, he said: “I think the European Union needs to be reoriented both in its functioning and in its political choices. And that’s the whole challenge of the European elections in June.”
Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) has surged ahead in the French opinion polls ahead of the 2024 European Parliament elections. https://t.co/vPWMyWadNc
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) October 18, 2023
The underperformance of Reconquête in the polls may be due to several factors. It will be the first time the party has taken part in EP elections, rendering it a relatively inexperienced player in the EU political landscape.
In addition, its presence has been overshadowed by Le Pen’s National Rally.
The current sole Reconquête MEP, Bay was was initially elected under the National Rally banner in 2019 before parting ways with it in 2022.
National Rally currently leads in the latest the polls with around 31 per cent.
The gradual rise of the French Socialists in the race for EP seats presents may be another factor. The Socialists’ list, led by Raphel Gluscksman, is currently polling at 13 per cent.
"What we have built is already destroyed!" — former left-wing French presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon claims the NUPES electoral alliance, aimed in part at combating the rising far-right, is "dead". https://t.co/60NSupOiM2
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) December 1, 2023
