For a great win Merz must not tilt to the centre, he must understand AfD concerns

The leader of Germany’s Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, looks likely to achieve his longstanding dream and become the nation’s next chancellor. Merz is much likelier to do that if he defies elite consensus and makes his campaign about ending immigration and fighting crime rather than fixing Germany’s ailing economy.

Merz starts the race to the expected election on February 23 in strong shape. His Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance holds a substantial lead in the polls, taking 33 per cent to the populist Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) 18 and the Social Democrats’ (SPD) 16. Conventional wisdom would hold that Merz should play it safe, trying more to keep his current standing, and then effortlessly glide into a grand coalition with the SPD.

That counsel, however, ignores recent German election history. CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel tried that approach in the run-up to the 2017 vote, but saw her party lose 5 points in the final month. CDU leader Armin Laschet failed even more miserably at the “don’t rock the boat” strategy in 2021, losing a comfortable August lead to current Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD by the time of the September 24 vote.

A similar decline next February would be catastrophic for Merz. He would still win if his party’s standing dropped from 33 to 28 points, but he would likely be forced to assemble a three-party coalition including either the Greens or the liberal Free Democrats (FDP). Scholz found it nearly impossible to keep such a fractious grouping together and ultimately decided to pull the plug on his own government despite the SPD’s low standing in the polls.

That means Merz should be looking to increase his party’s support rather than stabilize it. He can do this by copying the old Merkel strategy of looking to his left for centrist voters. That’s what running on fixing the economy would signal: Merz is a safe set of hands whose business background makes him the stable agent for moderate change.

There’s only one problem with that: public opinion. Germany’s centre-right voters are increasingly worried about the massive number of migrants and asylum seekers already inside the county. They fear the rising crime toll and want it reversed. They might agree with Merz on the economy, but their priority is to tackle other concerns first.

That’s the approach the AfD is taking. They offer conventional centre-right economics while adding vociferous criticism of the past decade’s policies on migration and crime. Add to that their equally ferocious attacks on the green policies pursued by Merkel and Scholz, and they offer disgruntled conservatives a real choice.

Tilt to the centre, as the CDU has done for over a decade, and Merz may lose a vote to the AfD for every vote he picks up from the SPD, Greens, and FDP. That weakens his hand when forming a coalition rather than strengthens it.

Tilting sharply in the other direction offers two advantages. First, he would directly address the main concern those tempted by the AfD have. Exit polls for the most recent Thuringian and Saxon elections show that migration policy and crime were the two biggest concerns for AfD supporters. Target those concerns, and those voters might back the CDU instead.

That wouldn’t be surprising since many of the AfD’s new voters had previously backed the CDU. The CDU lost an estimated 28,000 votes to the AfD in Thuringia, 44,000 in Saxony, and 21,000 in Brandenburg’s recent state election. They also lost tens of thousands more to the left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which also offers a strident critique of recent migration policy. 

Imagine what Merz could achieve if he made his campaign about migration and crime. Be forceful and specific enough, and the fact that he only recently returned to politics makes him a credible change agent. Done correctly, that would make his current 33 per cent a floor rather than a ceiling.

Imagine what could happen if he expanded his share of the vote at the expense of the populists. A CDU/CSU that won 38 per cent would be in a much stronger position to dictate the terms of an eventual coalition, while also obtaining a clear mandate to make dramatic changes in migration policy. That would also make a two-party coalition much likelier, perhaps even with a revived FDP if economically concerned CDU voters opted to switch to the other market-friendly party.

Merz would have to offer clear specifics, such as deportation of illegal migrants and sharp crackdowns on criminal behaviour. He would also need to either impose border controls or a policy that sends asylum seekers to another country upon entry, as Italy and the United Kingdom are trying to do. Centrist and centre-left elites will strenuously oppose that and the pressure on Merz to conform would be immense.

But that’s exactly the fight Right-inclined voters want their next chancellor to have. If they are not convinced Merz is the man, many will look to AfD leader Alice Weidel as the only credible alternative.

Merz has started the campaign on the right foot, telling the Bundestag on Monday that Germany needed a completely different approach to migration policy, including immediate expulsions at the border. Good for now, but he will need to intensify that focus despite the inevitable pressure for him to succeed.

Germany has long been the European Union’s lodestar. What it backs usually becomes EU policy. Merz can lead his party to victory on a clear platform of solving, not just ameliorating, the EU’s decade-long migration challenge. That would reverberate well beyond Germany’s borders and finally show that perhaps Europe has the desire to become great again.