The late Bernard Lewis once noted that the West risks being perceived in the Middle East as “harmless as an enemy, and treacherous as a friend.” Since the Arab Spring in the early 2010s, Islam has risen both as a religion and a political ideology. Fuelled by mass migration and demographic shifts, Islam now plays a significant role in European politics—a reality that would have seemed improbable just a generation ago. Lewis, who passed away at the age of 101 in 2018, did not witness events like the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021, the Islamist control in Syria, or the wave of Islamic terrorism in Germany. However, it is unlikely he would have been surprised. The West still fails adequately to address the Islamist threat, often dismissing it as a misunderstood lifestyle choice that occasionally spirals out of control. As Canadian commentator Mark Steyn once remarked, for too many experts Jihad is perceived as nothing more than a “harmless concept akin to a healthy-lifestyle lo-fat granola bar.”
When faced with Jihadis who are committed in both word and deed, there is a pervasive tendency to deny reality. This was starkly highlighted by a 2019 Washington Post headline—which was later removed—following the self-detonation of the first ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, during a U.S. raid on his Syrian hideout.
What the Washington Post described as an “austere religious scholar” was in fact a genocidal maniac responsible for the mass killing, rape, and enslavement of thousands of Yezidis. Contrary to what the Western Left accuse Israel of, this was an actual genocide, yet somehow for many in the media this apparently was a forgivable offense of an otherwise “austere” “scholar.” Similarly, we were told that the return of the Taliban in 2021 will lead to a completely new situation, and that they have learned their lesson. They were supposed to become a moderate force in the Middle East. Of course, nothing of the kind happened, and as everyone who knew anything about the Taliban expected, they did what they always intended to do: bans on music, foreign films, and video games, prohibiting girls from attending school beyond 6th grade, and the reintroduction of child marriages. None of this, however, stopped the EU generously to transfer money to the new regime in Kabul: €225 million in 2021, €174 million in 2022, €159 million in 2023, and €161 million in 2024. But is it not only financial support. Among the top 10 countries hosting refugees from Afghanistan are five European nations: Germany (No. 3), Austria (No. 4), France (No. 5), Sweden (No. 6) and the UK (No. 8). A similar picture emerges with the case of Syrian refugees: Most of them are in Turkey, but a close second is Germany, Austria is in seventh, and Sweden in 8th place when it comes to the number of asylum seekers. In Germany, the highest number of newly granted citizenships went to over 75,000 Syrians, creating an entirely new demographic category, the Arab-German. How well will they assimilate? It remains to be seen, but based on the most recent data, Syrians are leading the statistics on criminal foreigners in Germany. It remains a mystery why the German government would hand out passports to the very group that also has the highest number of criminals among them, thereby making it ever more difficult to deport law breakers. Once someone has been granted citizenship, it is almost impossible to revoke.
The pursuit of policies that will – intentionally or unintentionally – lead to the partial Islamization of Europe is also being pursued on the EU level. In 2021, the European Commission funded a campaign promoting the statement “beauty is in diversity as freedom is in hijab.”
It was only after protests from member states that the campaign was cancelled. Unfortunately, no lessons have been learned. After the fall of the Assad regime and the take over by Islamist forces, the British Telegraph ensured its readers that although the rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (or Ahmed al-Sharaa, as he calls himself now) has been part of both ISIS and al-Qaeda, these would be the world’s first “diversity-friendly” jihadists. Only two days ago, the Financial Times marveled at the question whether al-Jolani/al-Sharaa would be moderating or become a “brutal strongman.” To ask that very question shows how little the FT appears to know about the Middle East. Every government in the Region is run by either a strongman or strong men, since this is the only way governments function in this part of the world. 
Yes, yes – I know that nobody wants to hear that, but this is just the reality. Remember Tunisia, the posterchild for democratisation after the Arab Spring? Well, in recent weeks the government has been cracking down on the opposition, as Al Jazeera reports: “Many of the defendants, who stand charged with offences ranging from ‘plotting against the state security’ to ‘belonging to a terrorist group’ are notable critics of the president, including politicians, former diplomats, lawyers and high-profile media figures.” Almost without exception, the countries of the Middle East are governed in an authoritarian style, and the idea that a former ISIS Jihadist will create a Syrian Switzerland was always delusional. And so it is happening. At the time of writing, the new Syrian state is on a murder spree among the Alawite minority, the group of which former dictator Bashar al-Assad was a member. Cynical optimists might say that this is cleaning out the opposition, but it is just as likely that this will be the beginning of a thorough Sunni-Islamification of the country. In hindsight, comments by former politicians like Rory Stewart who compared Jolani to “Gandhi or Mandela,” seem entirely absurd.
Islamism is on the rise, and contrary to 20 years ago, Europe now has a substantial minority of sympathisers with this ideology, making future terrorist attacks even more likely. All of this was foreseeable, but now we have to live with the consequences of our elite’s delusions.
Europe cut out of the negotiating table, and no one who matters cares