Poland’s presidential election race took an unexpected twist as a result of an opinion poll putting Sławomir Mentzen from the right-wing Confederation party in second place.
He was ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the largest opposition party the Conservatives (PiS), although well behind the front-runner from Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO) party, Rafał Trzaskowski.
A number of polls had already shown the gap between Nawrocki and Mentzen tightening before one published on February 28 and conducted by the SW Research agency showed Mentzen with 19 per cent, edging out Nawrocki on 17 per cent. Trzaskowki was comfortably ahead with 34 per cent.
Support for Mentzen has, according to a recent poll of polls published by eWybory, risen from an average of 10 per cent at the end of 2024 to 17 per cent by the beginning of March.
According to the surveys, Mentzen was the only candidate with upward momentum ahead of election day set for May 18.
The top two candidates will face a run-off ballot on June 1 and a poll published by United Surveys for portal Wp.pl on February 24 showed the gap between Mentzen and Trzaskowski was just 7 per cent whereas Nawrocki trailed Tusk’s nominee by 11 points.
Despite that, polls ahead of the 2023 parliamentary elections had also shown the PiS surging to around 15 per cent before declining in the final weeks of the campaign. The party finished with just 7 per cent on election day.
Mentzen has run a highly active campaign, visiting around 200 out of just over 300 Polish provincial counties, drawing large crowds to his meetings. He has also attracted 1.5 million followers on TikTok, the highest of any Polish politician on that social media platform.
He has focused on being business friendly and libertarian as well as taking a tough line on Ukraine, which he visited on February 24. Whilst there, he condemned the Ukrainians for building monuments to the late nationalist Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera whose movement was responsible for the massacre of more than 100,000 Polish civilians during the Second World War.
The Confederation party was delighted with the turn of events and in a social media post attacked the front runner Trzaskowski for copying its stance on migration and Ukraine.
“Mentzen is the original and Trzaskowski is just imitating his views. Unfortunately for him fewer and fewer Poles are deluded that there will be even a trace of these temporarily adopted views after the presidential race is over,” it said.
That was in reference to Trzaskowski’s pledge to make universal child benefit available only to those Ukrainians who were in work and his promise that Poland would not accept illegal migrants redistributed as a result of the European Union’s Migration Pact.
Nawrocki has focused on what he called the government’s failure to fulfil the vast majority of its election promises but he has also attacked the PiS administration (2015-2023) on tax, migration, Ukraine and the acceptance of EU’s Green Deal.
Mentzen’s policy platform has been reminiscent of US President Donald Trump’s when he won in the 2024 presidential election on promises of sealed borders, low taxes, ending “woke” ideology, defending freedom of speech and the freeing-up of cryptocurrencies.
On March 2, during a speech in central Poland in which the PiS candidate outlined his policy platform, Nawroki said that the upcoming election was really a “referendum in which the voters, by voting for [him], had the chance to reject the Tusk government”. He added that his victory would be key to achieving the objective of “making Poland a sphere of normality”.
In a move to counter Mentzen’s rise in the polls, he promised legislation to cut both indirect and direct taxes, not to sign any legislation that would introduce new property taxes and to abolish all duties on inheritance.
Nawrocki also attacked Ukraine over alleged unfair competition from Ukrainian farmers and the failure to address Polish sensitivities over honouring Poles murdered by Ukrainians during the Second World War’s Volhynia massacre.
