Western demographic data looks dark: The future belongs to those who show up

The most profound geopolitical shifts of our time are not being decided in boardrooms or battlefields, but in maternity wards—or increasingly, in their conspicuous absence. As I often remind audiences, the future belongs to those who show up for it, and the demographic data tells a stark story about who will be shaping tomorrow’s world.

Consider this striking historical trajectory: In the early 1900s, the United Kingdom had more inhabitants than Nigeria. By 1960, these two nations had roughly equal populations. Yet in approximately thirty years, Nigeria will boast more people than the entire European Union combined. I cannot predict exactly what the future will look like, but I can tell you with certainty that Nigeria will have a significant role in shaping it—while the European Union, quite probably, will not.

This demographic reality exposes the absurdity of contemporary discourse about “neo-colonialism”. How can populations with fertility rates below replacement level—well under two children per woman—possibly enact colonial policies? The historical British Empire succeeded not because the British were particularly mean-spirited, but because they managed to solve a demographic problem. You can only colonise another continent when you have a surplus of people to do so.

Today, the British, Americans, and continental Europeans have no such surplus. Instead, we witness demographic arbitrage in reverse. When critics dismiss the “Islamisation of Europe” as conspiracy theory,  they miss a fundamental point: This represents perfectly natural population movement. When one part of the world experiences population surplus while another faces population deficit, people migrate from the former to the latter. This requires no grand conspiracy—merely basic mathematics. If one group averages six children while another approaches zero, you need no Ivy League degree to calculate who possesses a future.

The Demographic Death Spiral of Great Powers

This demographic reality creates profound cognitive dissonance in contemporary geopolitics. We continue crafting policies as though we possess nineteenth-century demographics, but we emphatically do not.

Consider the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Here we have a war between two countries locked in demographic death spirals. By 2100, Yemen will likely have more inhabitants than Russia. As the Canadian author Mark Steyn wrote 20 years ago: If the average Russian were hanging from a tree, he would qualify for the endangered species list. Yet Putin pursues territorial expansion as though Russia faces the Nazi problem of too many people in too little space.

Even if Russia conquered all of Ukraine, where would Putin find Russians to populate his colonial project? Both nations should prioritise ensuring that Russians and Ukrainians continue to exist in the future, rather than destroying each other in the present.

China faces similar contradictions. Beijing appears obsessed with Taiwan’s status—understandable given its historical and cultural significance—yet China will likely grow old before growing rich. The Middle Kingdom lacks the demographic foundation to sustain superpower competition long-term.

The United States may prove the exception to this demographic decline. Through some combination of geography, culture, and fortune, America possesses the natural resources, food production, and energy independence necessary for long-term survival. This demographic and resource advantage may prove more decisive than any military or economic policy.

The Collapse of Civilisational Confidence

Demographics alone do not explain our civilisational malaise. Western societies have lost the capacity to build—both literally and metaphorically. A journalist friend recently attended a meeting advertised as “building bridges”, expecting discussions about community reconciliation. Instead, he found engineers discussing actual bridge construction. His confusion perfectly captures our contemporary condition: We find it easier to build metaphorical bridges than real ones.

Try building anything substantial in the United Kingdom today—it approaches impossibility. The same paralysis afflicts other Western nations. We can no longer construct the physical infrastructure that previous generations took for granted.

This construction crisis reflects deeper civilisational exhaustion. Societies that believe in themselves eagerly embrace the future, whatever it might bring. Western nations, however, remain perpetually litigating the past while neglecting what tomorrow could offer.

September 11 provides a telling example. The attacks represented something done to the United States and the broader West. Yet it took a decade to rebuild structures where others had been destroyed—something America did to itself. Most of New York’s iconic skyline, including the Empire State Building, was constructed during the Great Depression in under five years. Today, environmental impact studies alone require twelve years. The greatest threat to trees may well be the paper required for regulatory compliance rather than actual construction projects.

Confronting Reality Beyond Moral Preferences

We are moral beings, and this moral dimension of human nature deserves celebration. However, certain realities cannot be ignored simply because they contradict our moral preferences. Demographics represents one such reality.

The mathematics of population growth and decline operates independently of our ethical judgments. We can debate the morality of various responses to demographic change, but we cannot debate away the underlying numerical trends.

Western policymakers must distinguish between moral aspirations and empirical realities. This does not require abandoning moral considerations, but rather grounding moral reasoning in accurate assessments of demographic, economic, and geopolitical facts.

The future will be shaped by those who acknowledge these realities while maintaining moral purpose. Those who refuse to confront demographic mathematics will find themselves spectators to history rather than participants in shaping it.

The choice remains ours, but not indefinitely. Demographics, like compound interest, works slowly at first, then very quickly. The West can either adapt to this new reality or become its victim. But we cannot simply wish it away.