In the Netherlands, after a tight election left no party with a majority, the Social-Liberal D66 party led by Rob Jetten has chosen a familiar figure to guide the process of forming a coalition: Wouter Koolmees.
The former minister and coalition “scout” helped stitch together the last government in 2021 and now leads Dutch Railways as its president.
On October 4, he was appointed to explore which parties could form a new government after D66’s narrow win over the right-wing PVV (Freedom Party).
Sam van der Staak, director at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, told a panel hosted by Brussels-based European Policy Centre on October 3: “It’s an extremely difficult puzzle.
“There are two realistic options, but both require compromise from parties that don’t really want to work together.”
D66 emerged as the largest party following the October 29 ballot with 26 seats, just ahead of Geert Wilders’ PVV, which also secured 26, as the 28,000 vote advantage for D66 was not enough for the party to get an extra seat.
The country’s proportional voting system means that forming a government will require at least four parties to reach a majority in the 150-seat parliament.
Jetten has made clear his preference for a centrist coalition including D66, the centre-right CDA (Christian Democrats, 18 seats), the GreenLeft–Labour alliance (GroenLinks–PvdA, 20 seats), and the right-liberal VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, 22 seats) — a grouping that would command 86 seats.
Such a “broad centre” coalition faces scepticism, though. As Ria Cats, a reporter with Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad, noted on the panel: “Dutch voters want a wise, stable government. But the problem is that these parties have spent months defining themselves against each other.”
The VVD, which lost two seats in the election, holds a “kingmaker” position. Despite its reduced size, it can make or break any coalition. Yet it has signalled reluctance to work with Labour’s Frans Timmermans, seeing collaboration with the Left as a political liability for its own base.
“Traditionally, in Dutch politics, the party leading the coalition is the one that must give in the most,” said Elizabeth Kuiper, director of the Social Europe and Wellbeing at the European Policy Centre.
“D66 will have to mediate between partners that disagree on almost every major issue — climate, migration, and spending”, she added.
That dynamic has defined every post-war Dutch coalition: The leading party sets the tone but also sacrifices the most to secure stability. Kuiper added that progressive parties “tend to be the ones that bend further” because their partners often come from the centre-right.
Koolmees’ appointment reflects D66’s search for continuity and credibility. In 2021, he helped convince the VVD, CDA and Christian Union to continue in Mark Rutte’s fourth government — a process that took 299 days, one of the longest in Dutch history.
According to Dutch broadcaster NOS, Koolmees is seen within D66 circles as “acceptable to both Left and Right parties”, making him a suitable figure for the role.
Yet even with his’ experience, forming a new coalition may prove no easier this time. The outgoing caretaker Prime Minister, Dick Schoof, has warned he may still be in office “at Christmas”, signalling the likely drawn-out nature of the talks.
Beyond party politics, analysts say the Dutch electorate itself is shaping coalition behaviour.
Cats noted voters “want politicians to act responsibly and stop bickering in public”, a sentiment that has grown since the collapse of Rutte’s last government over migration policy.
That expectation could push parties such as D66 and VVD toward pragmatic compromises, but it also raises the political cost of visible concessions, especially for leaders trying to preserve their identities.
Koolmees will now begin consultations with all party leaders and is expected to deliver his first report by November 11.
From there, the process could move toward appointing an informateur — the official negotiator charged with drafting a coalition agreement.
