A new opinion poll conducted by Odoxa-Mascaret has projected that Jordan Bardella, President of France’s right-wing National Rally (RN) party, would secure victory in the second round of the 2027 presidential election.
The survey marked a significant shift in France’s political landscape.
Commissioned by Public Sénat and published across regional press outlets including La Voix du Nord and L’Union, the poll simulated voting intentions as if the election were to be held on November 30.
It forsaw Bardella leading the first round with 35 to 36 per cent of the vote, depending on the configuration of centrist candidates, far surpassing rivals from the Left and centre.
He took a jump of 3.5 to 4.5 points in six months, giving the edge for the second round. In the decisive run-off, Bardella emerges as the clear winner in every tested scenario.
Against former prime minister Édouard Philippe, representing a centrist bloc, he would prevail with 53 per cent to 47 per cent.
Against moderate leftist Raphaël Glucksmann, the margin widens to 58 per cent to 42 per cent.
A hypothetical contest with Gabriel Attal, another ex-prime minister and ally of current President Emmanuel Macron, sees Bardella at 56 per cent to Attal’s 44 per cent.
Most strikingly, against left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Bardella secures a resounding 74 per cent to 26 per cent.
The poll, based on interviews with 1,300 French adults aged 18 and over conducted online on November 19 and 20, underscores Bardella’s growing appeal.
He now tops the list of preferred political figures, with 39 per cent approval, four points ahead of his RN mentor Marine Le Pen and seven ahead of Philippe.
This surge follows Le Pen’s five-year ineligibility ruling in March over alleged misuse of European Parliament funds – a decision she is appealing – positioning Bardella as the RN’s presumptive candidate.
Marine Le Pen’s conviction and accompanying ineligibility to run for president has sparked intense reactions both in France and abroad. https://t.co/PIDIjEWVA7
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) April 1, 2025
Odoxa president Gaël Sliman described the findings as a “political earthquake”, noting that Bardella “frightens people less” than his predecessors.
The poll further signals the erosion of the traditional “republican front” alliance that has historically blocked right-wing advances, as seen in Le Pen’s defeats in 2002, 2017 and 2022, he said.
In a Bardella-Philippe run-off, for instance, only 60 per cent of Glucksmann’s voters would back the centrist, with nearly 40 per cent of Les Républicains (LR) Retailleau’s centre-right supporters also shifting to the RN.
On the Left, the survey highlights divisions: Glucksmann edges Mélenchon 14.5 per cent to 12 per cent in first-round scenarios, reflecting a preference for the more moderate Socialist over the left-wing firebrand.
Centrists fare poorly, with Philippe at 17 per cent and Attal at just 11 per cent, amid Macron’s plummeting approval ratings, now at a historic low of 21 per cent.
This decline stems from the hung parliament and governance paralysis following Macron’s snap legislative elections in mid-2024.
The right-of-centre vote consolidates strongly behind Bardella, capturing 40.5 per cent in first-round tallies, compared to 34.5 per cent for the Left and 25 per cent for the Macronist-LR bloc.
Éric Zemmour’s right-wing Reconquête party scrapes just 3 to 3.5 per cent, below the 5 per cent threshold for campaign reimbursement.
Despite the stark projections, Odoxa cautions against overconfidence.
“Being the overwhelming favourite in a presidential election several months before it takes place is no guarantee of success,” the firm stated, alluding to past upsets and the potential for shifting alliances.
Sliman echoed this, warning that while a right-wing win would no longer constitute a “thunderbolt,” the 18 months until April 2027 leave ample room for volatility.
New polls in France showed National Rally President Jordan Bardella gaining traction, outperforming even his political mentor and de facto party leader Marine Le Pen. https://t.co/P1UU6KA9n6
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) May 6, 2025
