Populism gains in The Netherlands, despite Wilders’ seeming failure

Geert Wilders blew it when he quit the Dutch government in June, thereby precipitating last week’s snap election. That doesn’t mean the populist right is in trouble – quite the opposite.

Wilders ostensibly withdrew his party, the Freedom Party (PVV), from the four-party government because he was frustrated his coalition partners were not going far enough on his signature policy, immigration restriction. But naked political calculation might also have been behind his decision, as polls showed the most moderate party in the coalition, the New Social Contract, had lost almost all of its support.

He could reasonably have thought that a new vote would return PVV to power without the need to compromise as much with a group that only joined him grudgingly.

That hope was foiled, though, by a few developments. First, all of the other coalition parties said they would not form a coalition with him again. Dutch voters who wanted dramatic change knew then that a vote for Wilders would likely be wasted.

Wilders was also hurt by the defection of one of his prominent members, Ingrid Coenradie, to another conservative populist party, JA21. The party immediately spiked in the polls and rose to as many as 13 seats in pre-election surveys before winning a record high nine seats.

Yet another right-populist competitor, Forum for Democracy (FvD), also changed its leadership before the vote. Long-time leader Thierry Baudet elevated a 28-year-old woman, Lidewij de Vos, to lead the party’s list. FvD also gained seats, capturing 7.

Finally, Wilders’ own campaign decisions likely hurt him. He avoided all of the early debates, only joining the fray in the campaign’s final days. This backfired as his opponents all ganged up on him in the final debates, depriving him of the chance to repeat his rapid, final week ascent from two years ago.

The result was that PVV dropped from 37 to 26 seats. But the combined total for the country’s four conservative populist parties – PVV, JA21, FvD, and the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) – only declined by two seats, from 48 to 46 in the 150-seat chamber.

That total is still nearly one-third of all seats, a near record high for the Dutch Right. The total is even higher if one adds in the centre-right Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the ultra-Calvinist SGP. These six parties hold 71 seats together. No working government can be formed without at least one, and probably more, of these parties.

That could happen, as the Dutch left suffered serious losses. The GreenLeft/Labour Party (GL/PvdA) alliance lost five seats, leading its leader, Franz Timmermans, to resign. The far-left Socialist Party also lost ground while other minor left-leaning parties stayed level.

In 2012, the Labour Party alone won 38 seats while other clearly leftist groupings won an additional 21. This year the entire left won a mere 30 seats.

This means that no Dutch government can be formed without significant right-leaning input. A centrist-focused government including the election’s narrow victor, Democrats 66 (D66), and the revitalised centrist Christian Democrats (CDA) could garner only 66 seats if it joined VVD. The centre needs partners – and VVD has ruled out sitting in government with GL/PvdA.

That leaves JA21 and perhaps BBB as the junior partners that comprise the next government. BBB has only a few seats but has a strong position in the powerful Dutch Senate; adding it to the other four parties would give the centre-right alliance 37 of that chamber’s 75 seats as well as a slim majority in the more powerful House.

The strong populist showing means that Dutch politics has shifted significantly rightward. For decades, Dutch politics tilted to the left, as the Labour Party and other leftist groups vastly outnumbered parties to VVD’s and CDA’s right. That balance has now completely moved, as the right tail is over 50 per cent larger than the left wing.

Wilders and PVV may not be the beneficiaries of this development. If JA21 does join government and can show it was effective, it could grow at PVV’s expense. That would likely be good for the broader conservative populist movement, as the ultimate goal of politics is to wield power, not make statements.

But Wilders and PVV could easily rebound if VVD goes back on its word and allies with GL/PvdA, or if a centre-right government proves too weak to enact at least rightist policies. He could then tell Dutch voters “I told you so” at the inevitable next vote and urge them to break the deadlock by giving PVV so many votes it would have to dominate a new government.

Either way, populism gains in the Netherlands. That, not Wilders’ seeming failure, is the real takeaway from the vote. It’s likely only a matter of time until the Dutch fully join Europe’s populist parade.