As Europe roars against Russia, India doubles down on Moscow

Vladimir Putin lands in Delhi. Narendra Modi greets him with full honours. Last week, the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit unfolded not as a relic of Cold War nostalgia, but as a blueprint for the post-Western order. And if Washington feels that it can afford to strain its relationship with India so as to apply pressure for an end to the war in Ukraine, Brussels has an opportunity here.

Sixteen agreements have just been signed: Defence pacts, trade corridors, critical minerals supply chains, pharmaceuticals, joint ventures in AI and space, a fast-tracked free trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union. Moscow’s oil flows unchecked to Indian refineries. And beneath it all, a “special and privileged strategic partnership” has been reaffirmed – which is another way of describing India’s quiet defiance of American sanctions.

This is no mere photo-op. It is a seismic shift. As Europe roars against Russia, India doubles down on Moscow. Bilateral trade hit $65 billion this year, up 50 per cent. Russia supplies 40 per cent of India’s oil imports, discounted and sanction-proof. Defence deals include S-400 systems delivered and BrahMos missiles co-produced. Modi’s message is clear: While New Delhi will not be drawn into a quarrel with the White House, it will also not be lectured on sovereignty

The alarm bell in Brussels should be ringing loud. As Beijing’s shadow falls heavy across the Indo-Pacific, India, the world’s fastest-growing major economy and a demographic titan of 1.4 billion, becomes the only viable alternative to China’s supply chains. Plus, here is a partner who does not wish to wipe out our industry, nor control our infrastructure. But this partnership, despite the EU’s €100 billion trade surplus with New Delhi, may prove fragile, if Modi pivots eastward.

History whispers warnings. India’s non-alignment tradition dates back to 1955 at Bandung, Indonesia, birthplace of the non-aligned movement. Jawaharlal Nehru balanced Washington and Moscow, buying MiGs while courting Eisenhower. Today’s multipolar game is fiercer: A system of US, China, Russia, Europe and India as a wildcard.

Putin woos Modi with BRICS solidarity and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ties. Xi Jinping watches as the West fractures its own alliances. The Quad – US, India, Japan, Australia – holds against China in the South China Sea, but if India drifts into a Moscow-Beijing orbit, that front crumbles.

Despite its seemingly absurd policies, America grasps this peril acutely. Trump’s team knows: Without India, the China game is lost before it starts. Economically, Delhi’s markets can rival Beijing’s. Geopolitically, India patrols the Malacca Strait and checks Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea.

The new US National Security Strategy mentions India 17 times: A “comprehensive global partner” for tech, defence, and countering Eurasian competitors. Trump’s entourage in Delhi last week floated a mega-trade deal, echoing Modi’s call for “Make in India” hubs. Lose India, and the Indo-Pacific becomes a Chinese lake. Washington cannot go it alone.

Yet Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods sting badly. Steel, aluminium, textiles, chemicals, all affected bitterly. Washington’s protectionism, tied to Russian oil purchases, creates friction. And this could be the perfect moment for Europe to step in.

Brussels has already ignored Trump on Ukraine. Maximalist demands sank his peace plan. If Europe can defy America there, why abstain from exploiting the rift here? Trump shuts doors. Europe can open them. Go for good deals in the tariffs-affected sectors. Revive the Free Trade Agreement talks with urgency. Remove barriers on pharmaceuticals, IT, textiles. Joint semiconductor ventures.

Instead, Europe sleepwalks into isolation. Naïve sanctions on Russia price Moscow’s Urals crude at a bargain for Indian buyers, who resell refined products globally – with €10 billion in EU imports last year alone, as we end up funding the very war we decry. There are, of course, smarter options.

India plays the long game. Modi’s “multi-alignment” courts everyone. The multipolar world is here and this swing player tips the balance of power and influence. So wake up, Brussels, and make the best of the situation. Court Delhi, counter Russian and Chinese agendas, forge bonds of mutual gain. America needs India to cage the dragon. Europe needs it to secure its future. If the EU wants to remain relevant globally, it should start acting so.