Is the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, heading for the abyss or merely suffering a temporary dip?
Polls shows a continuing loss of public support.
According to the latest survey by Dutch pollster Maurice de Hond, published on January 18, the party would lose another nine seats if an election were held today, dropping from 26 to 17 seats.
Support is largely flowing to the Forum for Democracy (FvD), the right-wing party led by Lidewij de Vos.
FvD has been climbing steadily for weeks, jumping from seven seats at the October elections to the equivalent of 14 in the latest poll — almost entirely at the expense of the PVV. The gap between the two parties has on paper narrowed to just three seats, making it increasingly plausible that FvD will soon overtake Wilders’ party in terms of popular support.
Is this the beginning of the end for Wilders?
In June, he blew up the PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB coalition, a move that cost him the trust of a significant part of his own electorate. Many former supporters believe Wilders failed to deliver on campaign promises and should have persisted with his political project despite heavy resistance in parliament.
The PVV chief has responded to his party’s slide in the polls by launching a pre-emptive attack on a future left-leaning minority cabinet comprising Democrats 66 (D66, led by Rob Jetten), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA, led by Henri Bontenbal) and the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD, led by Dilan Yeşilgöz).
“The Netherlands has absolutely no confidence in Jetten’s gang. We will fight them mercilessly from day one,” Wilders said. He dismissed Bontenbal as a “weak egg.”
Meanwhile, the FvD appears increasingly well positioned to challenge the PVV’s dominance on the Right. The party openly calls for a “Nexit”, the Netherlands leaving the European Union, and wants to tear up the European Convention on Human Rights to enforce a total asylum stop with sealed borders.
The FvD has also persistently questioned the extent of human influence on climate change, and even whether global warming is taking place at all.
Unlike the PVV, the FvD is seeking to broaden its agenda beyond asylum.
In recent days, de Vos submitted parliamentary questions about the UK’s decision to bar right-wing influencer Eva Vlaardingerbroek from entering the country. Vlaardingerbroek, who has more than 1 million followers on X, says she was banned without explanation.
“I’ve been banned from traveling to the UK. No reason given. No right to appeal. Zero due process. Just an email saying the UK Government deems me ‘not conducive to the public good’ — exactly three days after I criticised [UK Prime Minister] Keir Starmer,” Vlaardingerbroek wrote on X.
De Vos called the ban “yet another violation of freedom of expression by our neighbouring country” and addressed questions to foreign minister David van Weel (VVD) about the implications not only for Vlaardingerbroek but for other Dutch citizens as well.
“Do you agree that freedom of expression is an extremely important asset, and that we should expect our neighbours and allies — including the United Kingdom — to promote and protect this hard-won freedom?” De Vos asked.
The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Brussels Signal that the Vlaardingerbroek case is considered a private matter and that the Netherlands is keeping its distance.
“The ministry cannot comment via the media on individual persons or cases,” it said.
In more general terms, the ministry added: “It is up to sovereign countries to implement their own border policies. If a Dutch citizen disagrees with a refusal by another country, that citizen can challenge the decision through legal means.”
Wilders, meanwhile, continues to focus squarely on Islam. “The real problem is not called Islamism or radicalism or radical Islam or Salafism or Islamic extremism, the name of the number 1 problem is called ISLAM,” he wrote on X on January 16.
According to Wilders, Syrians must all return to Syria. “Some are already leaving voluntarily; the rest must be returned by force,” he wrote on X a few days later.
Both Forum for Democracy and the PVV are now preparing for the municipal elections in March, with both parties fielding candidates in a record number of municipalities.
