Irish ministers were warned as early as late 2023 that the annual cost of accommodating asylum seekers could spiral to as much as €1.5 billion if the system failed to prepare for the full implications of the EU Migration and Asylum Pact.
These revelations became public today after the release of confidential government documents under Freedom of Information legislation.
The 2023 warnings were tied directly to the anticipated effects of the Migration Pact, which Brussels officials promoted as a means to share responsibility more equitably across member states. Critics, though, argue it has imposed disproportionate burdens on frontier and high-arrival countries such as Ireland.
Briefing papers, prepared amid surging arrivals and mounting pressure on Irish state agency the International Protection Accommodation Service (IPAS), highlighted the risk of severe budgetary strain from reliance on private commercial providers.
At the time, non-state-owned accommodation was costing €1.522 million per day for a population far smaller than today’s figures.
The documents explicitly raised the prospect of tented refugee camps as a contingency measure to cope with rising numbers, should conventional housing options prove insufficient.
Officials noted that such measures had already become part of “operational reality” in response to earlier surges, with the system expanding from around 7,000 people accommodated in August 2021 to more than 33,000 by late 2025, of whom 9,700 were minors.
Ireland’s actual expenditure on asylum-seeker accommodation reached €1.2 billion in 2025, a 19 per cent increase on the previous year.
It means an average daily spend of €3.287 million.
Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan disclosed on January 25 that spending had already hit nearly €950 million by the end of October 2025, with projections suggesting the full-year figure would exceed €1 billion for the first time.
Most asylum seekers in Ireland came from Somalia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The refusal rate of the state International Protection Office, which was responsible for processing applications, after the first 20,200 decisions was 81.39 per cent in 2025.
Without adequate preparation, including a shift towards state-owned facilities, the papers cautioned that costs could reach the €1.5 billion threshold annually.
In response to these and similar pressures, the Irish Government has introduced a series of reforms.
These include plans to require employed asylum seekers to contribute between 10 and 40 per cent of their income towards accommodation costs, potentially up to €238 per week for higher earners, a reduction in initial support entitlements, and accelerated processing under the forthcoming International Protection Bill 2026.
The emphasis has shifted towards state-run centres, where per-bed costs are significantly lower (€12,000 annually versus €30,000 in the commercial sector), and a move away from expensive hotel contracts that have drawn criticism for price-hiking and variable quality.
The revelations come as net migration remains elevated and public spending scrutiny intensifies.
COMMENT: England has fallen on a sword of multiculturalism, while Ireland has sacrificed itself on the altar of mass immigration, rendering both societies almost unrecognisable, writes Kevin Myers. https://t.co/cDU2ubYVKn
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) August 19, 2025
