When I called a Hungarian politician, who is highly placed among the current political elite, yesterday evening and asked him how he assessed Marco Rubio’s visit to Budapest, he sighed with obvious satisfaction and said, “It was a beautiful day.”
Other people I spoke to from these circles said similar things. They breathed a sigh of relief because recent weeks had brought some doubts about the attitude of Donald Trump and his people towards the Hungarian election race. I experienced this in January when I was discussing Hungarian-American relations while working on a documentary film in conservative Washington newsrooms and think tanks, and I was struck by the distance there towards these elections: “Regardless of who wins, relations between Budapest and Washington will remain excellent,” I heard several times.
The effects of a major offensive by Peter Magyar’s people, but also by their allies, such as the influential head of Polish diplomacy, Radosław Sikorski, were evident in building the conviction that the leader of the Tisza party would continue Orbán’s line on issues of fundamental importance to the United States. Tisza is the old, young Fidesz, uncorrupted by power – this is the main propaganda line of this formation, both internally and externally. This line of reasoning is false, because although Tisza clearly received Brussels’ approval for such dressing up, it will end after the elections. The goal is to remove the last obstacle to the next step towards “deepening European integration”, i.e. further reducing the importance and sovereignty of EU Member States. In this arrangement, there is less and less room to stand on the barricades.
That is why I understand the joy of my Hungarian interlocutors. A rather dull conference attended by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Secretary of State Marco Rubio turned into a political breakthrough when we heard words about a “golden era of mutual relations” that continues thanks to “strong leadership” and the special relationship between the Hungarian Prime Minister and the US President.
“It should not be any mystery to anyone here how the President [Trump] feels about you, how he interacted with you in his first term as president and how in his second as president. Its important to understand how important the relations between leaders are to the relations between countries. At the end of the they we are still human, we are still people and that person connection, that you’ve established with the president, has made all the difference in the world,” said Marco Rubio. Later he emphasised: “President Trump is deeply committed to your success because your success is our success”.
Yes, it’s hard to imagine clearer support.
For anyone familiar with Hungarian politics and media relations, it was clear that Rubio was responding to all the main points of criticism levelled at Prime Minister Orbán by the Brussels-backed opposition.
Hungary’s isolation? Nonsense, Hungary is respected and plays an important role.
Cheaper energy from Russia in exchange for betraying the European community? No – it is thanks to personal relations with President Trump and well-presented arguments that Hungary has been exempted from sanctions, and this exemption will be prolonged.
Lack of investment? Here is a cooperation agreement on a civil nuclear program, here are 17 upcoming American investments, thanks to Orbán’s personal relationship with Trump.
Financial problems? Political blockade of European funds? President Trump will personally take care of it and help make up for the losses.
This is a set of key issues that will determine the outcome of the elections in Hungary.
In the final stretch before the most difficult elections for Fidesz, Orbán is receiving powerful assistance from the United States. Rubio’s visit confirmed that the US administration is breaking the mould in this area as well and is ready actively to fight for its friends. More precisely, it is breaking the pattern that only Democratic administrations can do so, because under Obama and Biden, billions of dollars flowed into financing left-wing organizations, the direct political base of the European Left. This time the support is legal and transparent
My Hungarian interlocutors point to two specific decisions that Rubio’s visit to Hungary is preparing as particularly important. The first is a visit to Hungary by “someone even more important before the elections”. The date is most likely March 21, the day of the CPAC Hungary conference. It has not yet been decided whether Vice President Vance or Trump himself will come. Neither option is ruled out.
The second is financial aid for Hungary, which was already discussed during Orbán’s visit to Washington in November and which Rubio mentioned in general terms. “Officially, everyone will deny it, but there are high hopes that it will be something so big that it will counter the opposition’s argument that Hungary is becoming poorer due to politically motivated EU funding blockades,” says one of my Hungarian interlocutors. Such a package could be called a “financial shield for Hungary” and take a form that would give the economy a similar boost to that provided by EU funds, regardless of whether they are well or poorly spent.
It was a very important day for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his party. In a tough campaign, they are facing a united bloc of almost the entire opposition and its powerful media, with the full force of the European left thrown behind Hungary. This is compounded by natural fatigue with the same government in power since 2010, which is unusual in democracies, economic growth that is unsatisfactory to Hungarians, and nervousness about the terrible war raging nearby. Trump and his people may tip the scales here.
All the more so because, contrary to the opinions of left-wing commentators, the opposition has not yet won. Even the average poll (although its reliability is highly questionable) shows that the two blocs are converging. Peter Magyar is being caught up by his extremely reckless lifestyle full of casual sex and substance abuse, and his hidden but media-revealed economic programme, which, contrary to propaganda, assumes a departure from the pro-family social sensitivity of Orbán’s government. Most analyses also ignore the specifics of Hungary’s electoral system, with its nationwide lists and simultaneous single-member constituencies. Orbán’s party could win in the majority of them.
More importantly, and something that no one will ever say openly, Americans also have hidden capabilities for support. To be honest, what I am about to write cannot be proven. But it is also difficult to dismiss this notion. Their influence on social media, through which most societies obtain information and opinions, may be greater than we think. I saw this in Poland before the presidential election.
A few weeks before the election, the image of the main candidates changed completely. The conservative Nawrocki began to appear likable and cool, while the liberal Trzaskowski became a laughing stock. Maybe that’s just how the campaign turned out? Or maybe someone tweaked the algorithms a little? We’ll probably never know, but in order to paint a true picture, it’s difficult to ignore this factor.
Either way, American assistance in the campaign cannot be overlooked. I remember an informal lunch with one of the American diplomats six months before the presidential election in Poland. “We really want to make sure that all power does not fall into Tusk’s hands, you have no idea how much,” he said. I was intrigued, but as well full of doubts: What could they really do? Tusk has all the media, money, Brussels support and brutally weaponised the justice system. And yet, it turned out, they could do a lot.
That is why there is no doubt that Marco Rubio’s visit to Budapest could be a game changer. It may turn out that Brussels is not the only capital which can point out their favourite candidates for prime minister.
Is Brussels weakness making Tusk turn Right?