Denmark looks set to maintain a tough stance on migration policy even after the snap election, which the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, called on February 26. A future government led by Social Democratic Frederiksen will likely even pursue a proposal that risks clashing with European human rights conventions.
Currently, polls show Mette Frederiksen as the clear favourite to lead the country for a third term.
The Prime Minister recently declared that any coalition partner to her Social Democratic party must back tighter migration policy measures, including a proposal to expel criminal migrants. In an interview with the Danish business daily Børsen, the prime minister described migration policy as an absolute cornerstone:
“For many Danes – myself included – it is the single most important issue,” she stated, and continued:
“I will not deviate from the strict immigration policy, because otherwise you undermine social cohesion, and I will not be part of that.”
Shortly before announcing the election, the outgoing government unveiled a controversial deportation reform. Legal experts argue it may conflict with the way the European Court of Human Rights currently interprets the European Convention on Human Rights.
Under the proposal, foreign nationals sentenced to at least one year of unconditional imprisonment for serious crimes such as aggravated assault and rape could face deportation.
The reform would ask Danish judges to permit the deportation of certain criminal migrants even if they have close family ties in Denmark, including children raised in the country. Today, criminal migrants too often avoid deportation if they have close family ties to Denmark, according to critics.
Even the Danish left-wing party SF, part of the Greens group in the European Parliament, has expressed support for the proposal.
With broad political support among Danish parties, the proposal is likely to feature prominently in the future coalition agreement, says Karen Nielsen Breidahl, Associate Professor at Aalborg University’s Institute for Politics and Society.
“I think it will become part of coalition negotiations, and the Social Democrats will have to get it through. Otherwise, they will constantly be accused of not being tough enough on migration policy,” says Karen Nielsen Breidahl to Brussels Signal.
Like several legal experts, Breidahl predicts the proposal will be difficult to implement.
“It will be a huge challenge for the entire justice system. It has strong popular appeal among Danish voters, but implementing it in practice will certainly be much more difficult.”
When the proposal was presented, the Social Democratic party insisted that it expects the European Court of Human Rights to shift its interpretation of the Convention, paving the way for more deportations.
That expectation is partly based on a joint letter from 27 European countries, led by Denmark and Italy, urging the Court to give greater weight to states’ right to deport criminal migrants over migrants’ personal and security rights.
Whether the Court will revise its interpretation remains uncertain.
Frederiksen has acknowledged the risk that the reform could conflict with existing case law. Should the Court block a deportation, Denmark would potentially still comply, the Social Democrats have conceded.
Because of this, Karen Nielsen Breidahl calls it classic “symbolic politics” and a ploy to avoid migration policy becoming a key topic in the election debate:
“Traditionally, the Social Democrats would do everything they can to make sure that this is not what ends up dominating the debate.”
Nonetheless, the proposal is expected to be embedded in the next coalition agreement, alongside further measures to tighten migration policy.
“My best guess would be that there are no parties realistically seeking to form a government that genuinely oppose a strict immigration policy,” states Karen Nielsen Breidahl.
Prime Minister Frederiksen has also signalled a desire to possibly tighten rules on asylum, family reunification, citizenship and migrant inflows more broadly.
Over the weekend, the right-wing nationalist party Dansk Folkeparti sought to reignite the migration debate by issuing an ultimatum: More migrants from the Middle East and North Africa must leave Denmark than are permitted to enter.
Last year, the nationalist party Dansk Folkeparti proposed the “remigration” of selected groups, including criminals and migrants deemed unwilling to adopt Danish values or unjustifiably reliant on welfare benefits without supporting themselves.
The proposal sparked significant public debate and parts of the idea won backing from a significant number of voters, but it is unlikely to be adopted by the next government – even under a right or centre-right coalition. According to Breidahl, while the proposal to deport criminal migrants enjoys broad political backing, there is probably no political majority for remigration among Danish parties.
