The European gas market is under pressure due to the geopolitical situation and low stock levels.
According to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), European Union gas storage levels at the beginning of the 2026 injection season stand at around 28 per cent.
This is lower than in recent years, leaving Europe with a reduced buffer ahead of winter.
Any delay or disruption in refill activity could raise pressure on the system as winter approaches.
Piotr Kuś, the Director General of ENTSOG, stressed the importance of early and sustained injections.
“It is critical to start injecting gas as early as possible, even as early as April, and continue filling until November, to ensure adequate levels for the winter ahead. Continued LNG supply is also essential to avoid demand curtailment in certain situations,” he warned.
Replenishing storage ahead of winter, though, now requires higher LNG imports and the global LNG market is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“The escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf is tightening global LNG availability and constraining the ability to refill storages,” ENTSOG noted in an assessment published yesterday.
According to S&P Global data, Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the US, exported around 82.44 million metric tons of LNG in 2025, with approximately 8.9 per cent of that volume directed to European terminals.
With the Strait Hormuz chaos, the uncertainty surrounding the conflict is weighing on the regions reliant on Middle Eastern oil and gas.
Europe has become more dependent on LNG, with LNG expected to make up around half of Europe’s gas supply in the coming years.
If Europe is unable to sufficiently refill storage over the summer, the risk of winter tightness increases. In such a scenario, governments could face difficult choices, including emergency interventions or industrial demand curtailment.
While current supply conditions are not considered weak, they are increasingly conditional. The EU system remains functional but is becoming less and less resilient to shocks than in the past.
