Polls say Austria’s right-wing FPÖ will win election, pop that in your strudel and ponder

Yet another European Union member state drifts rightward. If polls prove correct, in the Austrian parliamentary elections on Sept 29th the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) is expected to win. This may have an impact not only on EU politics but also on EU-Russian relations.

Founded in 1956, the FPÖ has often been on the verge of taking power. Under Jorg Haïder it was one of the first national-conservative parties to leave its mark on contemporary European politics. It has participated in three government coalitions, one with the Social Democrats and two with the centre-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). Now for the first time, it looks like it can win first place.

The FPÖ rise is fuelled by the fact that Austria is far from being at its best. Illegal immigration and the woke agenda aside, the economy is shrinking while taxation is hindering growth. Now 2024 is expected to close with a 0.7 per cent GDP contraction. Many believe the war in Ukraine has a lot to do with this.

To make things even worse, Austria is highly dependent on Russian natural gas (about 80 per cent of its national consumption), which is expected to be cut off by Ukraine in 2025. With inflation already a problem, a surge in gas prices, which could reach 20 per cent, would be devastating for Austrians.

The FPÖ is not a Kiev enthusiast. Since the beginning of the war in 2022 its leader Herbert Kickl has repeatedly argued against EU sanctions on Russia. In a series of statements the party has dismissed the sanctions as “foot-shooting” (Knieschuss-Sanktionen).

Since the end of World War II, Austria has had a long tradition of neutrality. It only joined the European Union after the end of the Cold War and  is still not a member of NATO. This is central in the FPÖ’s line of argument against sanctions that it openly considers detrimental to national interests.

Herbert Kickl has also publicly accused the EU of pursuing a policy that prevents the two sides from sitting at the negotiating table. When in 2022 Viktor Orban blocked an EU aid package to Ukraine, the FPÖ applauded him on Facebook posting: “Bravo Viktor Orbán! Put an end to this EU warmongering!”

The Freedom Party and Russia go back a long way. In 2016 the FPÖ and Vladimir Putin’s party, United Russia, signed a friendship treaty. In 2018 Karin Kneissl, then FPÖ Foreign Minister, danced with Vladimir Putin at her wedding. In 2021 Kneissl joined the Rosneft Board of Directors and in 2023 she moved to Russia as head of a think tank.

Of course Herbert Kickl and other FPÖ bigwigs have explained that their treaty with United Russia is no longer valid. But the ties are there. And so are ideological, social, economic and political conditions for a new rapprochement between Vienna and Moscow.

So if the FPÖ comes to power – and with Donald Trump ante portas in the US – the balance of power in the West may further tilt against Kiev and its hard-line backers.

Of course, first the FPÖ will need to win on the 29th and manage to form a government. This may prove to be a complicated task, in part exactly because of the Russian conundrum. As the Austrians say: First bake the strudel, then sit down and ponder.