US reasserting their role as the primary superpower with breathtaking speed

As I have written elsewhere, I have always been suspicious of the idea of an emerging multipolar world order. This does not mean that it will never happen, but there is a difference between inevitable and imminent. At the time of writing the United States are reasserting their role as the primary superpower with breathtaking speed, and instead of counterbalancing US power by the rest of the world we see acquiescing to the demands of Washington. It all began just a few days ago with Colombian President Gustavo Petro refusing to accept deportees from the United States. Going on social media during a game of golf, Trump announced a massive tariff increase on Colombian imports as well as visa restrictions on government officials, forcing Bogota to back down within hours. 

The next countries on Trump’s list were Canada and Mexico. There have been long time claims that Canadian authorities are too lenient in issuing visas which can then be used to travel to the United States, something that runs counter to the new administration’s tough stance on immigration. Also, unbeknownst to many, Canada has become as crucial transit country for the fentanyl trade. “If we are your biggest trading partner, show us the respect,” Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary nominee, said in his confirmation hearings last week. “Shut your border and end fentanyl coming into this country.” The perceived unwillingness by the current Canadian government led to the imposition of a series of tariffs, which the government in Ottawa vowed to reciprocate.

But can they? Exports to the US make up 22 per cent of Canada’s GDP, while US exports to Canada are only 1.5 per cent of US GDP. The situation is even worse from the Mexican perspective: 35 per cent vs. 1.2 per cent. And it does not stop there. Due to cancelled pipeline projects thanks to environmental activists, in order to get oil from Western to Eastern Canada it has to pass across US territory, plus there is a dependency on US refining capacity.

Sure, Canada could cut off electricity supply in the North East, where states like New York are vulnerable but the leverage of Washington still dwarfs Ottawa’s. The same is true for Mexico and much of the rest of the world. As geopolitical analyst Michael Kao has pointed out: “Whether one agrees with Trump’s Tariff strategies or not, one must acknowledge that the risks are asymmetrically bad for the rest of the world.” Compared to the European Union and other nations, the United States are significantly less dependent on exports. This fact operates like a shield against counter tariffs, since the potential losses tend to be higher for the other side. International markets, The Financial Times reports, are also aware of where this could be heading: “The US dollar surged as much as 1.4 per cent against a basket of currencies before trimming its gains to 1.3 per cent. The Canadian dollar hit its lowest level since 2003, Mexico’s currency tumbled by almost 3 per cent and the euro slid 1.3 per cent.”

If we unpack these developments further, a rise in the value of the dollar means that Canadian and Mexican goods are becoming relatively cheaper, adding another layer of protection against counter tariffs. If – hypothetically – Mexican goods in the US are getting more expensive by 3 per cent due to retaliatory tariffs, but the Mexican Peso also loses by a comparable value, the strength of the US Dollar could entirely counteract the effects of the tariffs. On the long run nobody wins in a game of tariffs, but that is the point of the Trump administration: due what we ask you to, and the tariffs will go, don’t, and they will stay.

Given the current conditions, I would say that these conflicts will be resolved according to US interests within the next two to three months. Even Trump himself admits that these policies could cause some pain in the US, “but […] it will all be worth the price that must be paid,” the President wrote on Truth Social. One part of the price could be that the United States will be taken seriously again, a perspective reinforced by Panama’s decision to leave China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative after Secretary of State Marco Rubio paid the country a visit. 

Colombia, Mexico, Canada, and Panama. The United States is taking care of its back yard and is sending a signal to the rest of the world, that the days of taking Trump “seriously, but not literally” are over. The president intends to be taken both literally and seriously, supported by a cabinet that is fully on board with his agenda. In a truly multipolar world, those who caught the eye of Washington could align with any of the other poles. Yet, as has become clear, there are none. No currency equals the power of the dollar, and no market the importance of the American.

The United States are now showing their willingness to throw the full weight of their economic and financial power into the geopolitical game, and it appears that the self-imposed strings of previous administrations have been cut. It is unlikely that the United States will openly embrace this new unipolar moment – on the contrary – but the full force of its power at the moment simply has no match. This will not last forever, and none of this should blind us to the numerous domestic challenges the new administration has to face. No great power is invincible, but as so often the biggest obstacle to US power is US politics. If Trump succeeds in unleashing the structural advantages of the United States from energy to the economy to financial markets, it is difficult to see which countries have the necessary resources to counter Washington’s might. I am certain it will happen one day, as all super powers have waned in history, but this day is further away than many commentators believe. For the time being, this world will continue to be dominated by the US, and most countries will go along with it.