Cooler heads in Middle East know Hamas must be removed

The evidence is in: The attack committed by Hamas on October 7, 2023, was not a spontaneous uprising against “concentration camp-like” conditions as some pundits claimed but a strategic manoeuvre designed to derail a broader peace in the Middle East. As the Wall Street Journal reports, documents have been discovered by the Israeli armed forces that reveal the true intention of October 7: “Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s Gaza chief, told fellow militants that an ‘extraordinary act’ was required to derail the normalisation talks that he said risked marginalising the Palestinian cause.”

The Palestinian cause being, of course, the wholesale destruction of the state of Israel. An independent Palestinian state next to Israel was never the goal of the leadership in Gaza, and this is best demonstrated by the fact that they did, de facto (even if not de jure), have a state. Hamas ruled Gaza without competition, and it could have laid all the groundwork for a functioning state if only it had decided to do so. The argument that this was prevented not by the malfeasance of the Islamists but by an Israeli blockade misses an important point: If Hamas was capable of smuggling in rockets, weapons, and construction materials to build a vast network of tunnels, they most certainly could also have been capable of smuggling in the necessary equipment for power plants and desalination units. They chose not to because war against Israel was more important than the well-being of the population under their care.

This attitude was once common in the Middle East, but increasingly the Palestinians are the last ones wedded to this one-dimensional way of thinking. In recent years, Arab states have increasingly adopted a pragmatic approach toward their relationship with Israel. This shift was most notably demonstrated by the Abraham Accords of 2020, through which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain officially recognised the state of Israel. Around the same time, prominent members of the Saudi royal family began openly criticising the Palestinian leadership and expressing interest in joining the Abraham Accords themselves. These developments pushed Sunni Hamas to strengthen its ties with Iran, the region’s leading Shia power. As the Arab world moves toward normalising relations with Jerusalem, many Arab nations are likely to lose patience with political groups that remain committed to violent conflict with Israel. Both the Hamas leadership in Gaza and the Iranian regime in Tehran understand that their ambitions for regional influence would be significantly undermined by a united front consisting of the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

While this does not mean that there is no longer hostility toward Israel in the Arab world, it demonstrates that it is no longer the top priority for regional Arab leaders. Recent polling among ordinary Saudis reveals significant resistance to normalisation: only 14 per cent support allowing Israeli civilian aircraft to fly over Saudi territory, 13 per cent would permit Israeli sports teams to participate in events within the kingdom, and just 7 per cent would welcome Israel’s prime minister to an international conference held in Saudi Arabia. This widespread public opposition poses a substantial challenge for Saudi leaders, who must balance diplomatic ambitions with the sentiments of their citizens.

Hamas hoped that provoking Israel into a harsh military response could shift the regional political landscape. Images of Palestinian casualties resulting from Israeli retaliation have already stoked public opinion, forcing even those Arab governments that have recently adopted pragmatic stances toward Israel to revert to more confrontational, anti-Israel positions in order to preserve domestic legitimacy and avoid public backlash. However, as Trump’s recent visit to the region has shown, cooler heads seem to be prevailing. The people of Gaza are paying a dire price for Hamas’s gamble, leading to only one clear conclusion: Hamas must be removed, as they are neither willing nor capable of becoming a genuine partner for peace. Behind closed doors, leaders from Saudi Arabia to Egypt are aware of this, and even the new Islamic leadership in Syria appears hesitant to support their ideological allies in Hamas. If the regional players understand this, perhaps it’s time for the West to accept it too and advocate for Hamas’s unconditional surrender.