Israel’s relentless strikes have crushed a series of nuclear ambitions: Egypt’s missiles in the ‘60s, Iraq’s Osiraq nuclear reactor in ’81, Syria’s al-Kibar nuclear reactor in ’07, and now Iran in 2025. A provocative Modern Diplomacy piece, “Once Israel Defeats Iran, Pakistan is Next”, now eyes Islamabad’s 170 warheads as a looming menace.
Should a volatile, Islamist-leaning regime wield such apocalyptic power? Pakistan’s tangled web – its nukes, jihadist ties, and role as China’s strategic ally – begs exposure. Not a war drum for Israeli raids, but a stark alert to a geopolitical fuse armed and live.
Pakistan is no small fish. Its operational, scattered arsenal, backed by Saudi gold and Chinese steel, thrives amid chaos. Osama bin Laden’s cosy hideout and hardliner currents betray shaky ground. Can such a state be trusted with doomsday weapons?
Modern Diplomacy floats Israel and India hitting Pakistan’s less-fortified nuclear sites, then potentially carving it into Sindh and Punjab, snatching Kashmir, and severing China’s Indian Ocean dreams. This depicts Pakistan as a strategic zone.
China relies on Pakistan’s Himalayan buffer. A toothless Islamabad would disrupt Beijing’s plans, from Taiwan to beyond, forcing a critical repositioning of forces. Pakistan’s nukes fuel its bravado. And while its bunkers are less fortified than Iran’s, its arsenal is no less deadly. This brew of volatility and alliances makes a lethal puzzle.
Beside the latest Iran air campaign, Israel’s 1985 Tunis raid, a 2.400-km achievement, proves its long-range resolve and ability to hit targets with precision. With tankers over Jordan or Iraq, enabled by Syria’s collapse, Pakistan is a reachable objective. Yet, a jump from Iran to Pakistan may be too long a shot.
Israel’s hands are full. Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, Iran and Yemen are quite a handful. A far-off nuclear state is not on the table right now. Still, Pakistan’s chaos, from jihadist war cries to wobbly rule, makes its arsenal an unthinkable hazard, especially if rogues snatch it.
Islamabad is not an easy diplomatic target either. Yes, Russia, pragmatically tied to India to check China’s Far East ambitions, offers no shield. And Trump’s elusive diplomatic moves managed to split Russia and China from Iran. But Pakistan’s Chinese lifeline runs deeper, defying circumstantial alignments.
Pakistan responded to the latest Israel-Iran war with fierce rhetoric and provocative posturing, amplifying its rogue image. An Iranian claim of Pakistan’s nuclear backing went viral. Mass protests in Karachi called on the government to destroy “the enemies of Islam”.
Europe must stay vigilant and prepare a plan. Nukes in unsteady hands imperil global security. Yet a strike on Pakistan may do the exact same thing – and would be sure to send many more millions of illegal immigrants here.
Brussels has leverage, if it cares to use it: Vital trade deals, financing facilities extended to Islamabad, a say in the IMF, en masse returns of illegals. The EU should at least try to keep Pakistan in check. The time could not be long, when Europe may need to engage in order to prevent catastrophic missteps.
Dollars and the old clerical flaws: does Leo XIV have questions to answer?