The war in Ukraine is not just a catastrophe; it also exposes a deeper structural crisis within Europe, which is becoming an increasingly difficult place to live, according to American political scientist John Mearsheimer.
This crisis predates the Russian invasion and is largely driven by the gradual military disengagement of the United States from Europe, as Washington shifts its strategic focus towards East Asia. The less the American presence in Europe, the greater the risk of conflicts erupting across the continent, said Mearsheimer.
The political scientist was speaking yesterday at the European Parliament. The event was organised by the Patriots for Europe Foundation, affiliated with the European Parliament’s Patriots for Europe group.
Mearsheimer, a leading figure in the “realist” school of international relations, opened his speech with a stark warning: “Europe is in deep trouble.” He explained that Europe’s weakness stems from the shift from the post-Cold War unipolar world dominated by the US — from the collapse of the USSR until roughly 2017 — to today’s multipolar reality, where Russia and, particularly, China have emerged as major global actors. While Russia remains a weaker actor unable to rival the US, China is a formidable competitor. Therefore, the US is increasingly focused on Asia, reducing its strategic interest in Europe.
For Mearsheimer, this poses a serious problem for Europe because “the American military presence, established after World War II, made it impossible for European nations to fight one another. The US thus acted as the guarantor of peace on the continent. Some argue that the European Union guarantees peace. This is wrong. Without the American presence, the EU would face significant challenges.”
Speaking with Brussels Signal after the event, Mearsheimer said some Europeans had hoped that the conflict in Ukraine would compel the US to maintain its military presence as a counterweight to Russia. However, the Trump administration made clear that the true strategic competitor is China, not Russia. Not even the war in Ukraine has increased American engagement in Europe. If Europeans wish to continue supporting Ukraine, they will increasingly have to do so at their own expense.
On the conflict itself, Mearsheimer stated bluntly: “At this moment, Russia is winning the war.” He clarified that this does not imply a total Russian victory, but that Moscow has the capacity to sustain and prolong the conflict. Ukraine, on the other hand, struggles to address its manpower shortages at the front and is unlikely to turn the situation to its advantage.
“In the absence of negotiations, Russia can continue to advance,” Mearsheimer added. “Resolving the war through diplomacy is currently impossible, as the positions are irreconcilable. The EU will continue to support Ukraine, but not necessarily to Kyiv’s advantage, because the longer the war continues, the weaker Ukraine becomes. This dynamic will keep Russia–EU relations tense and maintain a persistent risk of conflict across Europe.”
He concluded: “The war in Ukraine is a catastrophe that makes Europe a far more difficult place.”
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