Germany’s population shrank by around 100,000 people in 2025, marking the first decline since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
It came as a persistent birth deficit outpaced net immigration for the first time in years.
Official figures from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) show the country’s population stood at approximately 83.5 million at the end of the year, down from 83.6 million in 2024.
The drop underscores a long-standing demographic challenge.
Deaths have exceeded births in Germany every year since reunification in 1990, with population growth historically reliant on immigration inflows.
In 2025, the birth deficit widened to between 340,000 and 360,000, driven by an estimated 640,000 to 660,000 births, a fall from 677,117 the previous year and just over 1 million deaths.
This deficit has surpassed 300,000 annually since 2022, far above the 2010s average of 171,423.
Net migration, which includes both arrivals and departures, provided some buffer but proved insufficient.
Destatis estimates net inflows of 220,000 to 260,000 people in 2025, a decrease of at least 40 per cent from 430,183 in 2024.
This marks the lowest net migration since 2020, when similar restrictions during the pandemic curbed movement.
For the first 10 months of 2025 alone, net migration totalled 220,000, down sharply from 391,500 in the same period of 2024.
Despite these trends, immigration has been a key driver of population stability over the past decade.
Since the 2015 migration crisis, Germany’s population has grown by 2.6 million, rising from 80.9 million in 2014.
Experts warn, though, that the demographic tide is turning.
Projections from Destatis indicate that even with moderate birth rates and high immigration, the population could dip below 80 million by 2070, while lower migration scenarios foresee a fall to under 70 million.
The ageing population exacerbates the issue.
The number of working-age individuals, currently 51.2 million, is expected to decline to between 37.1 million and 45.3 million by 2070, depending on migration levels, widening the gap between workers and pensioners.
Factors such as economic uncertainty, inflation, housing shortages and political instability have contributed to falling birth rates, according to Destatis’ analysts.
Regional data confirm the national patterns. In Bavaria, for instance, net migration from abroad dropped by nearly 58 per cent in the first nine months of 2025, to around 22,600, signalling a broader “trend reversal” in migration, as described by interior minister Joachim Herrmann.
Births in the state also fell by about 3,150 in the same period.
For the first time since the end of the First World War, more people are dying than are being born in Europe. https://t.co/VTUX2oGO6K
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) January 15, 2026
