The US intervention in Venezuela reopened a question that goes beyond geopolitics: Who stands to gain if the country’s oil sector is revived — and who does not?
The economics remain uncertain. Venezuela’s reserves are vast, but much of the oil is heavy crude, expensive to extract, and requires specialised refineries.
Philippe Gijsels, chief strategist at BNP Paribas Fortis Belgium, told Brussels Signal on January 5, that “If oil prices go down, which we don’t expect would be by a lot, the whole world economy would benefit from it, including the United States.”
The country’s production system has not been meaningfully modernised in decades, and pipeline infrastructure is widely seen as inadequate.
Venezuelan economist Jorge Jraissati wrote on January 5 the idea of oil quickly returning to global markets is misleading.
Venezuela is “often reduced to a single headline figure: The world’s largest oil reserves”, but that number “conceals a far more complex reality”.
In the short term, beneficiaries appear limited and specific: Certain US oil producers, oil services companies, and, potentially, a handful of international firms already present in Venezuela.
China and Russia, meanwhile, stand to fare worse — facing more competition and lower prices, rather than immediate access to new barrels.
That explains why markets barely reacted. According to Gijsels, Venezuela currently exports around one million barrels per day, a modest amount in a global oil market that is already oversupplied. Even a full disruption, he said, “would not have a big impact” on prices.
The broader oil market is unlikely to feel very much impact for now.
Energy analyst Aura Sabadus, from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services, echoed that view.
She told Brussels Signal on January 5 that the short-term impact on oil and energy prices would be limited, adding any downward pressure from increased supply would be “more a long-term story”.
In this scenario, lower prices would benefit oil-importing economies, but would not necessarily reshape trade flows overnight.
Competition tends to reduce prices, which would weigh on oil exporters’ revenues, including Russia’s, Sabadus noted.
Russia’s exposure, however, remains constrained.
Russian exports to Europe are already small, with China the main destination for Russian crude, Sabadus said.
Because oil prices are global, Russia would feel the effect of lower prices, but mainly through reduced revenues rather than lost volumes.
Lower oil prices could also have indirect consequences for gas markets, as many gas contracts remain indexed to oil, though with a time lag, she added.
Beyond prices, the Venezuelan question is also about control of resources. Investors are reassessing who could realistically benefit if production recovers after decades of decline.
For now, the answer is relatively straightforward.
Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) still controls the bulk of production and reserves.
Foreign companies operate through partnerships. Chevron has a presence via joint ventures and a special US licence, while Russian and Chinese firms also participate, though without majority control.
If a more pro-US and pro-investment government emerges, Chevron would be “best placed” to expand, according to analysts cited by CNBC.
European firms such as Repsol and Eni, already active in the country, could also benefit from a more stable operating environment.
US energy stocks appear to be pricing in that possibility.
Shares in Chevron rose sharply after US President Donald Trump pledged to “unlock” Venezuela’s oil reserves, promising US companies would invest billions to repair infrastructure and “start making money for the country”.
Today the country produces around 30 per cent of the oil it pumped fifteen years ago.
Analysts believe returning to production levels closer to three million barrels per day would take nearly a decade and require around $60 billion in sustained capital expenditure, according to Jraissati.
That would depend on stable political and regulatory conditions, which he also said cannot be assumed.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical balance is also shifting.
Alicia García-Herrero, senior fellow at Brussels-based Bruegel Institute, said the consequences of the US intervention extend far beyond the Americas.
China, she noted, has expanded its influence in Venezuela since 2008, securing access to cheap oil and raw materials in exchange for loans estimated at $60 billion.
While Beijing condemned the US action, García-Herrero argued China may still benefit indirectly, as Washington’s focus on the Western Hemisphere could leave more space for China elsewhere.
She also pointed to a softer gain: The intervention strengthens China’s narrative in the Global South as a defender of sovereignty and the UN Charter, a form of influence that may ultimately prove more valuable than oil itself.
