The United Kingdom is on the cusp of a profound demographic turning point, with deaths projected to exceed births every year from mid-2026 onwards.
That is according to the latest official population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The 2024-based national population projections, released yestterday, mark the first time in the UK’s modern history that natural population change is expected to turn persistently negative.
Mid-2025 is forecast to be the last year in which births slightly outnumber deaths. From 2026, the gap is projected to widen steadily.
Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS expects 6.40 million births and 6.85 million deaths — a natural deficit of around 450,000 people over the decade.
Without net international migration, the UK population would already be shrinking.
Despite negative natural change, the population is still projected to grow from 69.3 million in mid-2024 to 71.0 million by mid-2034, an increase of 2.5 per cent.
This rise is driven almost entirely by net migration, with 2.2 million more people expected to arrive than leave over the period. That figure reflects 7.28 million long-term immigrants and 5.10 million emigrants.
The population is expected to peak at 72.4 million in mid-2054 before beginning a gradual decline in the following decades.
The shift reflects two long-term trends: a sustained decline in the UK’s fertility rate, now around 1.4 children per woman and well below the 2.1 replacement level, and the ageing of the post-war baby boom generation, now reaching the highest-mortality age brackets.
The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to rise by 15 per cent by 2034, while the under-16 population is expected to fall by 13 per cent.
The projections are likely to intensify debates over immigration policy, pension sustainability and workforce planning.
With fewer young people entering the labour market and a growing retired population, pressure on public services, the NHS and the state pension system is expected to increase.
The figures also raise wider questions about the economic model of a country increasingly reliant on migration to offset demographic decline. In practical terms, the UK faces a shrinking domestic base of future workers, taxpayers and parents, while the number of pensioners and elderly patients continues to grow.
Several think-tanks have already warned that sustained negative natural change could require higher taxes, longer working lives or continued high migration in order to maintain economic growth and fund public services.
The ONS has stressed that these are projections, not forecasts, based on current assumptions about fertility, mortality and long-term net migration settling at 340,000 per year.
Actual outcomes will depend heavily on future policy decisions, economic conditions and whether the UK is able to reverse or moderate its long-term fertility decline.
France is facing a demographic crisis with its lowest birth-rate since the Second World War and the number of single people rising. https://t.co/BsNynITI7T
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) January 16, 2024
