It is not entirely without irony that the “The Most Successful Peace Project in the History of Mankind” is currently planning the continent’s most ambitious armaments programme since the end of World War Two. The successful maintenance of peace was not so much due to the wisdom of European leaders, but because the people of Europe were understandably exhausted after the two world wars and happily pushed for economic and political integration under the protection of Washington. Don’t get me wrong, I never joined the ranks of those who complained about the vassalisation of Europe and its condition as a protectorate of the United States. The term “vassal” appears to indicate that Europeans are slaving away for their American masters, but in truth it is the exact opposite: the average American takes 14 vacation days per year, compared to 24 in the EU.
And this is just the tip of the iceberg. In Austria, for example, you have a right to five weeks of paid vacation, in addition to 13 public holidays (also paid) and – which sounds almost unbelievable – employers have to pay 14 salaries each year (the so-called vacation and Christmas money). Whenever I tell this to American friends, they accuse me of making things up, and I have to admit sometimes I have a hard time believing it myself. Well, until I check my bank account during a three-week vacation in Italy, fully paid by my employer.
Alas, the comforts of being a “vassal” are coming to an end. Europe will be forced to take care of its own defence, and despite promises by leading politicians to the opposite, this will cut into the welfare state. Not surprisingly, resistance is already forming: in a close vote (73 against 71) the Dutch parliament has rejected the EU’s “ReArm Europe” plan. The argument the Netherlands is making is compelling. Taking out massive new debt in the amount of €800 billion for defence purposes will create incentives to reassign all kinds of things as being necessary for “defence.” The EU proposal is a debt-union through the back door, and Amsterdam does not trust its partners. The temptation to abuse debt-making to prop up overburdened welfare programmes could be too much to resist for states like France, Italy, or Germany. In Berlin, in fact, resistance against new spending is so fierce that Mr. Merz is trying all kinds of tricks to get the legislative to approve taking out more debt.
He is attempting to convene the old parliament (the one elected in 2021) in a special session to approve his proposed spending splurge in the amount of €500 billion. He knows that the new parliament based on the February 23 election would not vote for the suspension of the so-called debt-bmereak that is enshrined in the German constitution. Whether this is even legally possible will be decided by the German Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe in the coming days, as the opposition parties are suing this attempt as unconstitutional.
What is even more outrageous, however, is that Mr. Merz is not only trying to use a lame-duck parliament to push through some of the most far reaching changes to the post WW2 German constitution, but he does so while explicitly breaking campaign promises from just a few weeks ago. The CDU’s party programme released in January 2025 states explicitly that there will be no tampering with the debt brake. On page 14 it explains the CDU’s supposedly prudent financial policy that hinges on the triad of adhering to the constitutional debt brake, implementing tax relief, and making necessary investments. According to the programme, the debt brake helps prevent today’s debts from turning into tomorrow’s tax hikes, ensuring Germany remains a pillar of stability in the eurozone.
Now, not even a month after the elections, the programme is no longer worth the paper it is written on. Even less surprising, all that “defence” and “infrastructure” spending will once again contain all kinds of Green boondoggles for “climate protection.” Merz needs the votes of the Greens, and they have decided to extract as high a price as possible, balking at his proposals and demanding more money for their pet projects. As things currently stand, it is quite likely that he will comply. Although one can have some sympathy for the Greens who were pushing for a weakening of the debt break, only to be rebuffed by the CDU which then moved on to try the exact same thing after the election.
It’s easy to envision that in order to get the €500 billion approved, the money will eventually have to be distributed among various party interests, including further funding for climate policies that have already done significant harm to the German economy. The credibility of Mr. Merz’s proposal will soon face a challenge from Germany’s nuclear engineering lobby, which asserts that as many as six nuclear power plants could be rapidly brought back online. Reliable and affordable energy is deemed essential for maintaining a viable arms industry, so any serious proposal cannot focus on solar panels and wind turbines, but must include nuclear.
Alas, the future government of “conservatives” and Social Democrats has agreed that Germany will abandon fission and focus on fusion. So instead of using a technology that has stood the test of time (nuclear fission), Germany is betting on a technology that has not even left the experimental stage. All of this is a joke and shows that there is no desire for serious course correction but only the continuation of failed policies with new partners.
It is doubtful that things will go differently in other European countries. The willingness of the electorate to give up on the living standards they have grown accustomed to will have limits, so all the proposed defence spending will most likely find its way into the welfare state.
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