Fire von der Leyen: ‘Blistering’ EP resolutions coming at her

October is right around the corner. In Tallinn, the snow is getting impatient, ready to fall. In Vienna, the sturm wine has arrived and is being eagerly poured. In Paris, the leaves are starting to fall in the Tuileries. In Washington, the apple cider is being broken out.

And in Brussels, the European Parliament will soon be voting on a no-confidence motion for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Specifically, they’ll be voting on two, one from the Left and one from the populist-right Patriots for Europe. Both resolutions are blistering. The Patriots for Europe write that von der Leyen pushed radical green policies and that “the EU is weaker today than ever due to the persistent failure of the President of the Commission to cope with the most pressing challenges, such as the economic and social decline of the Union…” The Left, for its part, critiques the Commission for its inaction on Israel and Gaza.

Both motions, however, also share major overlap: They both blast von der Leyen for agreeing the United States-European Union trade agreement, and both lambast her decision to push the MERCOSUR agreement (a free trade agreement with South America) over the objections of national governments. Arguably, the two motions agree on more than they disagree.

However, neither will currently pass. That’s partly because each group will likely not vote for the others’ motion. But it is more so because the centrist parties – specifically, the European People’s Party – will likely not vote for either.

This is a mistake and should be pre-emptively reversed. For the sake of the future of Europe, Ursula von der Leyen must be deposed.

The idea that the People’s Party would vote against their own is admittedly far-fetched, at least on the surface. But consider the playing field currently. The EPP is in a hopelessly bad situation right now. It currently polls in first place, yes; but that is solely due to the fact that the populist-right has splintered itself among three groups. If they were to get their act together (as they should) and unite, even if just as an electoral pact, they would – if current polling is correct – get 224 seats. The EPP would get 174, fifty fewer.

The situation gets more politically dire when one takes the entirety of the seat count into effect. A coalition needs 360 seats to have a majority in the European Parliament. Currently, the “centrist” coalition – of the EPP, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats, and centrist Renew Europe – garners just 367. A majority, yes, but one which is wafer thin, and if the populist-right continues its march, one which will likely be shortly eradicated.

This has played out across national governments as well. The populist-right is increasingly supplanting the centre-right as the “default” right. The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Portugal, and more all have had recent elections or polling which have put populist-right parties in first place. This is not something which had to happen to the centre-right, which used to be the central political pillar in most of Europe. It happened because the centre-right became ossified, and voters imagined they were more worried about conserving tax rates for banks instead of conserving cultures.

The EPP therefore needs something bold to break out of their morass – or, to be a bit more morbid, their quicksand. And voting to fire von der Leyen could be what does it, an important symbol and a statement: “Yes, we get that you are frustrated. We are frustrated too, and we will no longer allow incompetence to emanate from within our own ranks.”

It’s not as if they gain anything from staying fastened to her. Von der Leyen is incredibly unpopular, toxic even. A clear majority of Europeans want von der Leyen to resign, particularly after her deeply unpopular US-EU trade deal. In August, just 23 per cent of Europeans had a positive view of her Commission presidency. These are simply appalling numbers, and they are acting as an anvil weighing down the European People’s Party.

Which is all the more confusing as the EPP – at least those who live, work, and breathe Brussels – are genuinely Europeanists who believe in the sanctity of the European project. They also believe the populist-right is a danger to that project. Why, then, remain tied to a rapidly sinking ship which never really went anywhere to begin with? It gains nothing.

Then there’s the simple fact that there is no loyalty coming from the reverse direction. EPP party leader Manfred Weber was the Spitzenkandidat – the leader of the party which got the most votes in 2018 – and yet he was passed over for von der Leyen, who French President Emmanuel Macron and then-Chancellor Angela Merkel likely believed would be no real threat.

The move was essentially a betrayal of the system and made a mockery of the idea that the European parliamentary elections were democratic (as practically no one had discussed the idea of von der Leyen becoming European Commission president, and Weber had represented the party in leadership debates). Weber obviously cares about the EPP. Why stand by the people who shivved you in the back and are currently the leading cause of your party’s increasingly resemblance to wreckage?

If you are a member of the populist-right, von der Leyen is dragging down your ability to make your country great once more. If you are a member of the centre-right, she is damaging your ability to further the European project and helping to propel the populists to more and more victories.

There is currently a right-wing majority in the European Parliament which could eject von der Leyen from office, particularly if the Left swallows its pride and votes with the Right. Those opposed to von der Leyen should take advantage of their present strength and force her out.