Although counting is continuing across the United Kingdom, the outcome of yesterday’s local elections is clear: Nigel Farage’s populist Reform Party has triumphed. It will be days, or even potentially weeks, until the full weight of the outcome sets in. But Reform’s triumph is clear. As of this writing, they have already picked up hundreds of seats, with more to come. Reform triumphed around the country, evicting Labour from power in places they have not lost for decades; while the final result in Wales is unclear, it is possible that Reform could even displace Labour there for the first time ever. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s firewall, it seems, has been reduced to London – and even that is no sure thing, as the count drags on.
But these were only local elections. While not quite as influential as America’s midterm elections – unlike those, control of parliament will not change – they are a historical barometer for how the wind is blowing in British politics. And the wind is blowing toward Farage. But the prime minister-in-waiting has a problem: The parliamentary elections are not until 2029, a little more than three years from today.
It is probable that he will not be facing Starmer in that election. Before yesterday’s votes Ed Miliband, himself a former Labour Party leader now serving in Starmer’s cabinet, was reported to have urged Starmer to resign in order to avoid an inevitable series of brutal leadership spills and party infighting. While Miliband – who lost the 2015 parliamentary election to Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron – likely is eyeing Number 10 for himself, and would prefer to gain it without having to fight Starmer in a brutal leadership election, his warning rings fair. Starmer’s approval rating, at 22 per cent, is one of the lowest of all elected democratic leaders on the planet; his only saving grace is that his other European counterparts, like France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, are even more unpopular.
The results are almost certain to be blamed on Starmer. While they are a bloodbath, they could technically have been worse, as Labour seems to have managed to hold onto some areas which could feasibly have gone to the ascendent Greens. But that arguably makes things even worse for Labour, as a not 100 per cent clear-cut result is one which will cause some in the party to waffle. And the longer Labour is stuck on internal politics, the longer it will take them to face Reform. Plus, there’s a chance that the milquetoast Starmer will be replaced with someone who is significantly more left-wing. This could help staunch the bleeding to the Greens – but will not help the bleeding to Reform, which is happening across Labour-held areas.
Which itself now presents a problem for Reform: Governing. Winning in some places does not mean they will have to govern in all of them. Coming in first in Wales, for example, likely will not result in being able to form a government (the left-wing parties will probably have enough seats to do so), leaving Reform in the position of being the opposition, a role they relish in playing. But as dawn broke in the United Kingdom today, Reform had already won 258 seats, with over 4,000 seats to still be declared – meaning that, if this pace continues, they will easily gain over a thousand by the end of the day.
And with those votes they will need to govern. Running councils does not mean dealing with large-scale issues: It means running cities and towns. Making sure streets are clean and trash is collected. Parties like the Tories and Labour, which have run councils for decades, have an ingrown experience in how it works; Reform will need to learn quickly. Though some of their new Tory members could help them with that, many of their elected candidates are new to politics. Doing well will help set the stage for 2029 – doing poorly will weaken it.
Which is really the main question here: Can Reform keep this going until 2029? All signs point to yes. While Reform won these elections, voters understand that their local councillors cannot deport migrants or fix foreign affairs or government debt. And there are absolutely no indications that Labour, losing to the Greens, is planning on mass deportations or doing anything which would blunt Reform’s largest criticisms. The Tories, by simply acting like Reform-lite, are no threat to Reform.
But over three years, Restore Britain – the right-wing breakoff sect of Rupert Lowe MP – could be a threat. We have already been seeing hints of populist parties beginning to be outflanked on the continent. Italy’s National Future party, a nationalist group led by a former general just this past February, is only two points behind the League, which currently serves in the national government. Poland’s Law and Justice is clearly leading the pack on the Right, but the further right Confederation is half of their strength – but yet another further right party is on their heels.
Right now, Restore’s online strength has not shown up in the local elections. But that was never their plan. Restore, which calls for a significantly harsher deportation plan than Reform, is hoping to do to Farage’s party what Farage’s party did to the Tories: Make them seem like the weaker version. “Why do some mass deportations when you can do real mass deportations?” will be their rallying cry. And while Farage will argue that only he can help stop a Tory-Labour government (or worse), trying to convince angry voters to go with a slightly-less populist party as opposed to “the real thing” is extremely difficult. Tea Party star Senator Ted Cruz learned this the hard way in 2016 when, after having portrayed himself for years as the most conservative man in politics, he was easily bested by President Donald Trump, who essentially ran on a platform of, “Why not buy the real thing?”
The easiest solution would be to find a way to mend fences and to incorporate Restore back into Reform. There is plenty of time for this, of course, but it would behove both Farage and Lowe to put pride aside here.
For now, Reform is rightfully revelling in their victory. It’s nowhere near over, however. It’s not even the end of the beginning. But for a starting position, it’s not a bad place to be.
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