Shanghai Blues: We risk losing more than money when pushing India to BRICS

There is a 1991 Russian rock blues song named Shanghai Blues. It is a powerful tune, where Slavic emotion meets crooner style in a captivating performance. The band is Mashina Vremeni, which means “time machine”. And the opening lyric goes “A long time ago / when we didn’t care”. Which is what EU bigwigs should be humming right now under their latest Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) blues.

Unfortunately for Europe and the West, there is no such thing as a time machine, so we cannot magically return to the good old days when post-Soviet Russia was on its knees, China was still up and coming, and India was an exotic sleeping giant. That early post-Cold War era is gone. Nowadays, all three are top global players, alive and kicking – and recently brought together by our negligent arrogance.

The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin could evolve into a disaster of historical proportions, as Europe and the US alienated their partner India and strengthened adversaries and competitors Russia and China – all in one go. It is quite simple, actually. After Europe’s backing of Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on India pushed Delhi away, Narendra Modi signalled his country’s shift toward the BRICS — an alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and several others — posing alongside Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

Europe therefore risks losing a vital ally. Xi’s call for a “dragon-elephant” partnership met Modi’s “mutual trust”. After the 2020 border clashes, this first China visit in seven years comes as a highly symbolic move. Of course, Europe’s support of the Trump secondary tariffs, led by Ursula von der Leyen and enthusiastically praised by Kaja Kallas, endangers its $189 billion (€162 billion) trade with India in goods and services. But it is not just about the money.

The BRICS’ strength is formidable. It spans 46 per cent of global population and 36 per cent of GDP (PPP), surpassing the G7’s 30 per cent. Its $100 billion (€86 billion) New Development Bank challenges Western development funds and established international financial institutions. As for India’s weight, its 7.8 per cent growth in Q1 2025 makes it a major amplifier of the BRICS’ importance.

Geopolitics is an art demanding delicate balance. Europe and the USA weaken their hand by alienating India to subdue Russia. As part of the Quad, alongside the US, Australia and Japan, the South Asian superpower had a clear role: To counter China. But tariffs, already causing 15 per cent export losses, drive Delhi to the SCO’s $1.4 billion trade pledges. After WWII, spheres of influence split the world. Today, those spheres of influence are being challenged and revised -and India’s pivot could dramatically reshape them.

India’s strategic calculus is pragmatic. So far, it has relied on Russia for energy and on the West for trade and tech. Now “Trump’s tariffs are pushing India toward China”, warns Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation. And as CNBC notes, the SCO’s focus on trade and digital cooperation offers Delhi options that Europe risks losing.

Europe’s future hangs in the balance. An EU-India Free Trade Agreement, stalled since 2021, could secure markets, build stronger ties, boost cooperation and offer Europe an alternative to Beijing’s power games. Instead, von der Leyen’s tariff stance invites losses at every level. The Economist called this “a strategic error”, as India’s 1.4 billion-strong market slips toward the BRICS.

Tianjin was a warning shot. Modi’s talks with Putin and Xi’s hundreds of millions of grants to SCO members show India’s leverage. The BRICS, a group with almost half of the world’s population and three nuclear powers, pushes a multipolar vision of the international future. In this cadre, Europe risks future irrelevance by side-lining a key wildcard of global politics, Delhi.

It doesn’t have to be this way. But Europe must act. Ursula and her gang can find other, much more useful things to agree on with the temperamental POTUS. Diplomacy, not tariffs, can keep India engaged with the West. So will Europe’s leaders hum Shanghai Blues in regret, or are they going to rewrite the tune in order to secure our future as a first class world power?