European leaders have been unsettled by the decision of US President Joe Biden, who was heavily engaged with Europe, to pull out of the US presidential race.
His possible replacement Kamala Harris, in a November 2021 NBC interview, appeared to brag that she had never been to Europe.
That is in contrast to Biden, who in June alone made two back-to-back trips to Europe, separated by just a 60-hour stay in Washington DC.
His decision to step down was particularly tough for Ireland, which had sunk significant political capital into working closely with the Irish-American president.
Dublin now faces its proud Mayo man in the White House being replaced by a woman who has only one Irish ancestor — her great-great-great-grandfather was an Antrim-born slaveowner in Jamaica.
“Biden is a proud American with an Irish soul. When he arrived into Belfast, Louth, and Mayo last year, he himself said it was like coming home,” rued Ireland’s Taoiseach, or Prime Minister, Simon Harris after the announcement.
Until July 21, the US appeared certain to have one of two former presidents in office come January 2025, the other being Donald Trump.
Both were known quantities to European leaders. NATO Secretary-General (and former Dutch PM) Mark Rutte and Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni had invested effort in positioning themselves as “Trump whisperers”.
Meloni has had regular private phone chats with Trump, bypassing her own diplomatic team and Italy’s Ambassador in Washington, Italian daily Il Foglio reported in March.
No European leader, on the other hand, appeared to have spent much time cultivating Kamala Harris — who remained largely an unknown quantity in the continent.
“Does she have any views and does she have any particular knowledge? Who is she?” François Heisbourg, a senior adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, asked in February 2024, on the occasion of one of Harris’ few trips to Europe, to represent the US at the Munich Security Conference.
She also appeared slightly gaffe-prone on the few occasions she did wade into European affairs.
“Kamala Harris claiming there’s been ‘peace and security’ in Europe for ‘over 70 years’ proves that not only had she not been to Europe before this but she had also not heard much about Europe before this,” wrote Swedish political advisor Annika Rothstein in February 2022.
In February 2023, she drew derision regarding Ukraine when she stated: “Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country.”
In an average of 11 polls after the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate, Trump still commanded a 1.5 percentage point lead over Harris, only slightly less than his 1.9 point lead over Biden.
If Harris’ candidacy reinforces Trump’s chances of a second term, it would be particularly bad for close US allies in Europe such as Germany, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Germany is likely to be the world’s third worst-affected country by a Trump presidency, with a Trump Risk Rating rating of 72.8 points (of 100) in exposure on security and 55.5 on trade, it said.
