Conservative analysis of Ministry of Justice data has indicated that more than 9,300 domestic abusers could be released from prison early by the end of the current parliament under the government’s revised early-release plans.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has excluded offenders convicted of rape, serious child sexual offences and grooming after an urgent review, but those jailed for domestic abuse-related offences, including breach of restraining orders, stalking, controlling or coercive behaviour and intentional strangulation — remain eligible.
Burnham, who took office on July 20, 2026, suspended the scheme in his second week in Downing Street after pressure from MPs, victims, campaigners and prison officers. He set out the revised terms on August 4.
Under the changes, which take effect in October, many prisoners previously required to serve two-thirds of their sentence will become eligible after half, provided they have not committed serious disciplinary breaches.
Less serious offenders may be released after a third. Conservatives calculate that around 3,000 such perpetrators could be freed each year, totalling 9,371 by 2029.
The measures stem from the Sentencing Act 2026, under which some 6,000 prisoners had been due for early release from September. Ministry of Justice modelling has projected that prisons in England and Wales would run out of places in November.
Those released will be fitted with electronic tags. Justice minister Alex Davies-Jones said they would be held under “the strictest licensing arrangements”.
The ministry has also announced a £10 million (€11.5 million) package for victim support and said the new justice secretary, Alex Norris, would examine Imprisonment for Public Protection sentences.
Shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy described the decision as “disgraceful” and said it put victims’ lives at risk.
“Labour had to be dragged into this U-turn on [excluding rapists from] early release after campaigning from victims. But it clearly does not go far enough and is putting victims’ lives at risk. The clock is ticking [ … ] Labour need to ensure the remaining sex offenders and other serious criminals are excluded,” Timothy was quoted as saying by the Daily Mail.
He had earlier said one of Burnham’s first acts as Prime Minister would be to release thousands of criminals, including killers, ahead of schedule.
Reform UK equality spokesman Suella Braverman accused the government of “throwing thousands of traumatised victims to the wolves”.
“Not only is it deeply traumatising for these victims to know their attackers will be free to roam the streets nearby – many will be literally fearing for their life.”
Domestic Abuse Commissioner Dame Nicole Jacobs called for full transparency on the scale of releases so that adequate resources can be put in place.
“If these figures are anywhere near the level of abusers set to be let out, then it is critical the government is transparent about the scale of releases, so we can be confident the right level of resource is in place to keep victims safe,” she said.
Alice Russell-Harris of Refuge said the move risked undermining the government’s commitment to halve violence against women and girls.
Baroness Bertin, the Conservative peer who co-chairs the all-party parliamentary group on domestic violence, warned that “lives will certainly be lost if this isn’t thought through properly”.
She added that the threat abusers can pose to victims on release could not be underestimated.
Labour MPs including Sarah Champion and Allison Gardner also voiced concern that patchy rehabilitation and shorter time served offered little reassurance that abusers had changed.
Gardner, who represents Stoke-on-Trent South, said the prospect of an abusive partner being freed early was “frightening” for survivors and that their safety “must come first”. Champion, the MP for Rotherham, welcomed the pause but called for the list of excluded offences to be widened.
Burnham has said public safety remains his top priority.
“I wanted to go even further as I know there will still be concerns about other offenders having their sentence shortened. But it’s not possible without the prison system reaching capacity and collapsing, which would put public safety at much greater risk,” he said.
The Ministry of Justice called the 9,371 figure speculative, arguing it assumes unchanged prison populations and sentencing patterns and includes people who have not yet offended.
The government insists those released will be subject to strict licensing conditions, tougher supervision periods and restriction zones.
Pressure has also come from policing. The family of police constable Andrew Harper, who was dragged to his death behind a car in Berkshire, southern England, in 2019, learned this week that two of the men convicted of his manslaughter, Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers, remain eligible for early release.
Thames Valley Police Federation chairman Aileen O’Connor has threatened a legal challenge, and the force’s chief constable, Jason Hogg, said the men would have received life sentences had they been convicted under legislation passed in Harper’s name.
Because domestic abuse is not a standalone criminal offence in England and Wales, calculating how many perpetrators stand to benefit remains contested.
📝 ⚠️COMMENT: Kevin Myers argues UK “public safety” protects political careers, not people.
He critiques the government for focusing on “imaginary perils”, like Andrew Tate, while allegedly ignoring “ethnic crime” and grooming gangs in Telford to protect the Labour vote.
➡️…
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) December 30, 2025
